Abstract

NEBIUS will report fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview compiles last quarter performance, consensus forecasts for revenue, gross margin, net profit margin, and adjusted EPS, and the dominant institutional view from January 01, 2026 to February 05, 2026.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, NEBIUS’s total revenue is forecast at $246 million with an estimated year-over-year growth of 323%, EPS at -1.14 with an estimated year-over-year decline of 192.82%, and EBIT at -$243.98 million with an estimated year-over-year decline of 105.72%; company-level forecasts for gross margin and net margin are not provided in this period. The core business is anticipated to sustain modest growth, while a turnaround in profitability remains uncertain given negative EPS and EBIT guidance; the main revenue driver is expected to be the “Search and Portal” and “E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery” operations. The most promising segment appears to be “E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery,” supported by scale and improving monetization, though near-term YoY uplift is limited by a conservative demand backdrop.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, NEBIUS reported revenue of $146.10 million, a gross profit margin of 70.64%, net profit attributable to the parent company of -$120.00 million with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of -120.47%, a net profit margin of -81.86%, and adjusted EPS of -0.40 with year-over-year data not disclosed. A notable development was the resilience in gross margin at 70.64% despite operating losses. Main business highlights showed revenue contributions led by “E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery” at $420.75 million and “Search and Portal” at $337.51 million, with smaller contributions from “Other business units and initiatives” at $82.73 million, “Additional and Entertainment” at $66.90 million, and “Classifieds” at $24.17 million; YoY breakdowns for segments were not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Search and Portal

The “Search and Portal” segment remains a central revenue pillar, supported by stable query volumes and ongoing advertiser demand for performance-driven placements. With revenue scale indicated at $337.51 million last quarter, the near-term trajectory hinges on ad inventory quality, click-through optimization, and pricing discipline. If macro conditions keep brand budgets tight, the segment may lean further into performance formats and conversion-oriented bidding, which can sustain revenue even as broader ad markets fluctuate. The forecasted overall EPS and EBIT headwinds imply heavier expense intensity, so management’s ability to protect search unit economics through traffic partnerships and infrastructure efficiency will be crucial to defending gross margin. From a stock perspective this quarter, investors will parse any commentary on user engagement quality and ad yield trends, as these metrics offer leading signals for revenue durability through calendar Q1 cycles.

Most Promising Business: E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery

The “E-commerce, Mobility and Delivery” segment is positioned to capture incremental demand through logistics density, improved conversion funnels, and cross-sell mechanics that raise order frequency. Last quarter’s revenue base at $420.75 million suggests scale effects that can lower per-order fulfillment costs and support margin resilience, though the consolidated EPS and EBIT guide indicates broader loss pressures. Improvement drivers include tighter marketplace curation, loyalty mechanics, and dynamic pricing to balance take rates with consumer price sensitivity. A central watchpoint is basket size trends across cohorts; larger baskets with optimized last-mile routing can enhance gross margin even when headline revenue growth is low-single-digit. For investors, the segment’s path to monetization clarity—particularly how subsidies and incentives taper without hurting user retention—will be essential for evaluating revenue quality this quarter.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Profitability signals will dominate sentiment, as guidance points to negative EPS of -1.14 and EBIT of -$0.24 million despite modest revenue growth to $0.25 million. Gross margin sustainability near last quarter’s 70.64% will be scrutinized, with any deviation likely tied to mix shifts between high-margin ad services and lower-margin commerce logistics. Operating expense trajectory, including traffic acquisition costs and fulfillment overhead, will shape the net margin pathway; a tighter cost lens could narrow losses even if revenue growth remains restrained. Management’s commentary on demand elasticity in commerce and advertiser budgets in search provides critical color for revenue visibility over the next two quarters. Execution on product roadmaps that improve user engagement and reduce churn may support higher marketing efficiency and more favorable unit economics, which could mitigate EPS pressure.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of institutional commentary in the current window tilts cautious, with a majority characterizing the setup as challenged by ongoing losses and limited near-term operating leverage. Analysts point to negative EPS guidance at -1.14 and declining EBIT as signs that scale benefits have yet to translate into margin improvement, while revenue expectations at $0.25 million and 3.23% YoY growth indicate only modest top-line momentum. A consensus caution emerges around the pace of expense realignment and the need for clearer milestones on profitability within the commerce ecosystem. Several high-profile research desks frame the search ads business as a stabilizer but question whether it can offset investment intensity in delivery logistics and marketplace quality over the next two quarters. The prevailing view expects a results print consistent with guidance and a management tone focused on cost discipline and conversion-focused product improvements rather than aggressive growth targets.