Earning Preview: First Industrial—revenue is expected to increase by 9.61% this quarter, and institutional views are predominantly bullish

Earnings Agent
Jan 28

Abstract

First Industrial will report quarterly results on February 04, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes company guidance and market estimates to frame revenue, margin, and EPS expectations, and evaluates institutional sentiment to identify the balance of opportunity and risk into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $187.22 million, up 9.61% year over year, with EBIT of $75.69 million up 4.12% year over year and estimated adjusted EPS of $0.42 up 19.03% year over year; company-level margin expectations imply stable to slightly moderating operating efficiency. Based on the latest business mix, Same-Store Properties remain the core revenue engine, while Development and Land continues to supplement growth at a smaller base; revenue concentration in the legacy portfolio supports resilient rent collections and occupancy. The most promising segment is Same-Store Properties, contributing $165.10 million last quarter; its scale and contractual rent steps provide durable growth, while Development and Land at $10.60 million offers incremental upside off a modest base.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, First Industrial delivered revenue of $181.43 million, a gross profit margin of 74.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $65.31 million with a net profit margin of 35.95%, and adjusted EPS of $0.49; EBIT reached $80.76 million, with year-over-year growth of 15.68%. Net profit rose 18.34% quarter on quarter, aided by a high gross margin profile and disciplined expense control that supported strong flow-through to the bottom line. By segment, Same-Store Properties led with $165.10 million in revenue, while Development and Land contributed $10.60 million, Property Acquisitions $3.44 million, Asset Sales $0.16 million, and Other $2.14 million, reflecting stable core performance with modest contribution from pipeline activities.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Same-Store Properties

Same-Store Properties is expected to anchor performance again this quarter as leases marked-to-market and rent escalators continue to flow through. The scale of $165.10 million in the last quarter underscores the portfolio’s ability to absorb isolated vacancy downtime while sustaining occupancy and rental rate gains. With a consensus revenue outlook of $187.22 million for the overall company, incremental growth should be driven by rent steps, roll-ups on expiring leases, and stabilized assets entering the same-store pool over time. The robust 74.47% gross margin in the last quarter provides a cushion for operating variability, and stable net profit margin at 35.95% last quarter indicates that incremental revenue from the core portfolio translates effectively into net income. Investors will monitor leasing spreads and occupancy cadence to gauge the durability of the same-store growth vector through 2026.

Most Promising Business: Development and Land

Although Development and Land generated $10.60 million last quarter, it represents optionality for forward growth as projects reach stabilization. The forecasted EBIT of $75.69 million this quarter, up 4.12% year over year, suggests that development completions and initial rent commencements could partially offset higher financing and construction input costs. As the capital cycle evolves, the company’s allocation discipline—sequencing starts to demand visibility—should help protect returns on cost and maintain normalized yield spreads. The path to contribution expansion remains tied to construction progress, lease-up velocity, and the quality of preleasing; smoother deliveries could enhance the revenue trajectory into the back half of 2026 without materially pressuring margins.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Margin trajectory is a central driver, with last quarter’s 74.47% gross margin and 35.95% net margin setting a high bar; investors will parse mix effects between Same-Store Properties and Development as early-stage assets typically dilute margins before stabilization. EPS sensitivity is elevated given the consensus estimate of $0.42, implying a sequential normalization from last quarter’s $0.49; any deviation from operating expense timing, interest expense, or G&A cadence may influence the EPS bridge. Revenue visibility is supportive at $187.22 million, but leasing spreads, occupancy, and the pace of rent commencements across the development pipeline will likely dictate whether revenue outperforms or aligns with expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional sentiment appears predominantly bullish over the last six months, with multiple Buy ratings outweighing neutral views. On October 30, 2025, Truist Financial reiterated a Buy rating with a target price of $60.00, framing the stock’s earnings visibility around stable same-store NOI growth and a supportive rent backdrop. On January 14, 2026, DBS also maintained a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in the durability of rent escalators and the contribution from development deliveries to 2026 earnings cadence. Wedbush initiated coverage with a Hold in late September 2025, but the balance of recent views remains tilted to the Buy side, led by expectations for steady leasing, high occupancy, and disciplined capital deployment. The majority view emphasizes stable revenue growth near the $187.22 million mark, resilient margins supported by property-level cost control, and an EPS print close to $0.42; upside could come from better-than-expected lease spreads or faster rent commencements, while downside risk ties to timing of development stabilization and interest expense drift.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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