Policy benefits continue to emerge as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays approach, driving sustained growth in tourism market enthusiasm. On September 11, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism announced that it has jointly issued "Several Measures to Accelerate High-Quality Development of Inbound Tourism" with the Provincial Party Committee Propaganda Department, Provincial Party Committee Foreign Affairs Office, Public Security Department, and other departments. The measures encompass 23 initiatives across six major areas: optimizing visa and customs policies, promoting deep integration of aviation and tourism, enriching inbound tourism product supply, improving comprehensive inbound tourism services, strengthening integrated promotion and precision marketing, and enhancing management standards for cultural and tourism venues. The measures clearly state the need to further improve port customs clearance efficiency, optimize inspection channels for overseas tourists entering the country, create a convenient and comfortable customs clearance environment, and make full use of 24/240-hour transit visa exemptions for foreigners and unilateral visa exemptions and mutual visa exemption policies.
It is worth noting that recent policies in the tourism and travel sector have been continuously favorable. On September 9, the Ministry of Commerce established a series of consumption promotion platforms to advance the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and health. On September 12, Guangdong Province will launch the Golden Autumn Cultural Tourism Consumption Season welfare subsidy activity, allocating 20 million yuan in special funds to distribute cultural tourism consumption vouchers. The Chengdu Municipal Culture, Radio, Television and Tourism Bureau will distribute a total of 10 million yuan in tourism accommodation consumption vouchers in two rounds through four major platforms: Meituan, Ctrip, Qunar, and Fliggy, with voucher denominations including 40 yuan off orders over 180 yuan, 80 yuan off orders over 280 yuan, and other types. Huangshan City launched tourism annual pass cards containing 200 yuan consumption vouchers, while Tongcheng, Hangzhou, Yulin and other cities also introduced similar preferential measures.
Analysts point out that consumption promotion policies help boost tourism demand and scenic area visitor flow, with consumption vouchers directly stimulating hotel bookings and cultural tourism consumption. Combined with peak season expectations, sector short-term investment sentiment receives a boost, but attention should be paid to policy implementation effects and market differentiation risks. Investors are advised to seize structural opportunities.
Additionally, this year's National Day coincides with Mid-Autumn Festival in a "double festival combination," with 8 consecutive days off from October 1-8, creating the longest golden week record in history. As the "Eleventh" Golden Week approaches, tourism and travel bookings are gradually entering peak period. On September 9, Utour Group's "Eleventh" Golden Week travel trend report showed that 2025's National Day and Mid-Autumn "double festival combination" forms an 8-day holiday, which when combined with "extended leave" policies creates up to 12 days of super-long holidays. The 2025 "Eleventh" Golden Week tourism market welcomes sustained growth. As of September 8, the number of travelers during the "Eleventh" period surged 130% compared to last year, with GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) increases exceeding 120%. Some popular destination routes sold out 3 months in advance, with domestic and outbound tourism showing "bidirectional prosperity."
On the Tuniu platform, National Day holiday-related bookings have also seen significant warming. Current data shows that many users choose to "get ahead" at the end of September to start their National Day trips early, with outbound tourism users particularly enthusiastic about "getting ahead." For domestic National Day tourism, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sanya, Chengdu, Xiamen, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Dalian, and Weihai are the popular destinations booked by Tuniu users so far. For short-haul outbound destinations, Japan, Maldives, Indonesia and other destinations have seen more explosive booking enthusiasm for National Day group period independent travel products.
From flight booking perspectives, VariFlight big data shows that as of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for this year's Mid-Autumn National Day holiday exceeded 3.26 million, with daily average flight ticket bookings increasing approximately 26% compared to the same period last year; international flight ticket bookings have exceeded 1.16 million, with daily average flight ticket bookings growing approximately 15% compared to the same period last year.
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it expects China's inbound tourism retail market to grow more than 3-fold over the next 10 years, from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion in 2034, with its share of China's overall tourism retail market rising from 10% to 25%. The increase in globally renowned brands and continuously optimized shopping experiences are key driving factors. Morgan Stanley points out that China's leading consumer electronics products and the global rise of brands like Pop Mart will attract tourists to China and stimulate shopping demand. Meanwhile, Chinese products have internationally competitive pricing. Additionally, policy support is expected to promote duty-free and tax refund shopping, optimizing the shopping experience. Domestic Chinese retailers, shopping centers, and duty-free operators will benefit most.
Related Concept Stocks:
TRIP.COM-S (09961): In early September, BOCOM International released a research report stating that TRIP.COM-S (09961) second quarter performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth beating expectations and market share continuing to rise. The company is in an advantageous position in the current mainland market competitive environment, and the trend of improving marketing investment efficiency will continue, while overseas market investments have controllable impact on overall company profits. The firm extended Ctrip's valuation to 2026, based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 20x, raising the company's target price from HK$591 to HK$653, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
HWORLD-S (01179): H World Group released unaudited financial results for the second quarter and interim period of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, it achieved total revenue of 6.426 billion yuan (RMB), up 4.52% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.544 billion yuan, up 44.7% year-on-year. In the first half of 2025, it achieved total revenue of 11.821 billion yuan, up 3.46% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.438 billion yuan, up 41.25% year-on-year; proposed to distribute ordinary cash dividends of $0.081 per ordinary share for the first half of 2025.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (01880): In early September, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating it lowered earnings per share estimates for China Tourism Group Duty Free (01880) for this year, next year and 2027 by 13%, 7% and 2% respectively, while also lowering revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 6%-8%. It raised the target price from $55 to $60, with a rating of "In-line with market." The firm stated that under persistent macroeconomic weakness and intense channel competition, duty-free demand fell short of expectations, particularly on e-commerce platforms. China Tourism Group Duty Free's gross margin remains weak, especially for online sales. Morgan Stanley lowered its operating profit forecast for this year by 12% due to weak gross margins and economic deleveraging. However, after the Hainan Free Trade Port becomes operational in mid-December this year, offline sales are expected to perform better with potential margin improvements, as the firm's earnings forecast reductions for the next two years are relatively mild.
China Eastern Airlines (00670): China Eastern Airlines announced that in July 2025, the company's passenger transport capacity input (measured by available seat kilometers) increased 7.39% year-on-year; passenger turnover (measured by passenger kilometers) increased 9.42% year-on-year; passenger load factor was 84.76%, up 1.58 percentage points year-on-year. In July 2025, cargo and mail turnover (measured by cargo and mail ton kilometers) increased 10.53% year-on-year.