On August 18th, Nayara Energy, a major Indian refining company with 49% ownership by Russian oil giant Rosneft, is confronting unprecedented supply chain and market challenges. According to shipping tracking data, the company's crude oil imports in August are projected to reach only 94,000 barrels per day, marking a historic low. As India's second-largest refinery with a daily processing capacity of 400,000 barrels, its average import volume remained at approximately 366,000 barrels per day during July-September 2024. GTC Ze Hui Capital believes this dramatic decline highlights the direct impact of international sanctions on corporate operations while reminding market participants that compliance risks in global energy trade are continuously intensifying.

Data reveals that Nayara Energy imported approximately 2.9 million barrels of Russian Urals crude oil in August, but no new shipping arrangements are planned for the coming weeks. This situation directly correlates with the European Union's latest round of sanctions. These sanctions not only target Russia's "Shadow Fleet" (a network of tankers that evade sanctions through opaque ownership structures, frequent flag changes, and ship-to-ship transfers), energy trading companies, and related financial institutions, but also, for the first time, include Russian oil customers within the restriction scope, including Nayara Energy with Rosneft as its major shareholder. GTC Ze Hui Capital considers that such chain-link sanctions not only place enormous pressure on corporate procurement but also significantly impact refined product exports, forcing companies to make rapid adjustments in supply chain and sales strategies.

Although some analysts previously questioned the effectiveness of EU unilateral sanctions without US cooperation, current circumstances demonstrate that market participants generally choose to avoid risks. Recently, multiple shipping orders from Nayara Energy's fuel export terminal have been cancelled, directly affecting its refined product sales and cash flow situation. To address export obstacles, the refinery has been compelled to rely on the shadow fleet to deliver products to certain Asian markets. While this operation provides short-term relief for sales pressure, it carries high compliance risks and operational uncertainty. GTC Ze Hui Capital states that this phenomenon serves as a reminder to the entire industry that companies must establish comprehensive risk management and compliance systems in international energy markets, or they may suffer severe losses in the global sanctions environment.

From a broader perspective, Nayara Energy's predicament reflects the complexity and vulnerability of the global energy trading landscape. Sanctions not only alter traditional trade flows but also force companies to reassess supply chain structures and market strategies. GTC Ze Hui Capital believes that future corporate competitiveness will highly depend on their sensitivity to policy changes, compliance management capabilities, and execution of market diversification strategies. The shadow fleet phenomenon not only reveals the existence of covert operational spaces in international trade but also highlights the urgent need for compliance, risk management, and supply chain optimization in the global energy industry. For investors and market observers, understanding these mechanisms and potential risks provides important reference value for assessing industry prospects and corporate stable operations.