Gold Price Swings Deemed "Healthy Correction" as Wells Fargo Sets $6,300 Target

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During the Asian trading session on Wednesday, February 11, the spot gold price was quoted at $1,121.57 per gram, rising by $4.56 or 0.41% from the previous session, showing an upward trend for the day. The opening price was $1,116.90 per gram, with an intraday high of $1,124.10 and a low of $1,116.64.

At the beginning of 2026, individual investors have been following the lead of global central banks by aggressively accumulating gold as a hedge against risks from a fragmenting world order. Purchases of physical gold bars and coins have increased, but more notably, global gold ETF inflows reached a record monthly high in January. This has amplified volatility in the precious metals market while also implying potential short-term selling pressure.

A strategist from BCA Research pointed out that over recent months, gold ETFs, particularly driven by Asian demand, have been a key driver of gold prices. Asian investors are often trend-following and price-sensitive; a pullback in gold prices can easily trigger position unwinding, leading to significant short-term declines. Data from the World Gold Council shows that ETFs attracted $19 billion in January, the strongest monthly inflow on record. Combined with a 14% rise in the gold price, assets under management reached $669 billion, a record high and a 20% monthly increase.

However, the hedging nature of ETFs exacerbates volatility: their fund flows are less stable than physical demand. Investors tend to trade tactically with quick entries and exits, making them more sensitive to price movements and market dynamics. Selling often occurs after just a few weeks of declines, meaning the more gold prices rely on ETF flows, the more volatile they become. This explains the recent sharp swings: COMEX gold futures hit a record high of $5,354.80 per ounce on January 29, then plunged 13% over the next two days, breaking below the $5,000 level. The price has since recovered to $5,031, down 1% on the day.

Long-term, the strategist believes global investment demand will continue to support gold prices. Emerging market central banks are expected to use price dips to increase their gold holdings, diversifying reserves and preventing a correction from turning into a bear market. The current bull market is not exceptionally unusual from a historical perspective; its gains are smaller than those seen during the two major bull markets of the 1970s. Historically, significant bull markets have often included multiple sell-offs, and the recent pullback aligns with the characteristics of a long-term uptrend.

Wells Fargo concurs, describing the correction as a "healthy adjustment following a strong rally." Between January 22 and 29, the gold price traded more than 30% above its 200-day moving average, prompting profit-taking. The bank recommends buying on dips and has raised its year-end 2026 target price to a range of $6,100 to $6,300, representing a potential gain of at least 20% from current levels. Wells Fargo remains optimistic that geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility, and ongoing central bank purchases will continue to support the gold bull market.

In the latest spot gold market analysis, gold started the previous trading day at $5,058.70 per ounce. During the early session, the price climbed to $5,075.30 but met resistance and subsequently turned to a volatile downtrend. In the morning session, gold experienced a decline, touching a low of $4,988.60 before stabilizing and beginning a choppy recovery.

Entering the European and American trading sessions, gold continued its uneven rebound. During the U.S. session, the price reached a high of $5,078.50 before facing renewed selling pressure and pulling back again. Near the close, gold settled at $5,025.40, forming a small bearish candlestick on the daily chart with a lower shadow slightly longer than the upper shadow. Given this closing pattern, the release of non-farm payrolls data today is likely to break the current range-bound stalemate.

Traders should pay close attention to the resistance level around $5,080. If the price rallies but fails to break above this resistance, a bearish view is suggested, with a downside target looking toward $4,900.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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