Guosheng Securities Inc. released a research report stating that rising oil prices are accelerating cost transmission to PET, significantly improving the profit margins for bottle chips. As oil price benchmarks rise and the supply crisis for Middle Eastern raw materials intensifies, the market is gradually transitioning from the first phase of trading chemical products with high Middle Eastern production capacity shares to the second phase, which involves trading on declining operating rates at Asian refineries. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for approximately 34% of global crude oil trade volume. The aromatics chain, due to the low substitutability of its oil-based production routes, possesses strong potential for price increases. Prices are currently accelerating their transmission along the naphtha-PX-PTA-PET industrial chain. Profit margins for polyester bottle chips are showing marginal improvement. The firm suggests focusing on Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ). The main views of Guosheng Securities Inc. are as follows:

Raw Materials: 1) PX-PTA: Reliance on a single oil-based route leads to significant price increases. According to BaiChuan YingFu, the average price for PTA in the East China market this week (March 6-12) was 6,303 yuan per ton, up 17% week-on-week, but the increase in upstream PX was significantly higher than that for PTA. The operating rate for PTA this week (March 6-12) was approximately 77%, with market supply remaining basically stable. PTA relies on a single oil-based production route; if the PTA operating rate declines, attention should be paid to the risk of raw material "supply cuts." 2) MEG: Rising costs for oil-based production are expected to benefit coal-based and natural gas-based routes. Globally, oil-based routes account for a high 67% of ethylene glycol production, making it a typical crude oil-priced product. The average price for ethylene glycol in East China this week (March 6-12) was 4,519 yuan per ton, up 15% week-on-week, with an operating rate of about 62%. Some ethylene-based MEG producers have reduced output. Non-oil production routes are expected to benefit.

PET Bottle Chips: Rising costs accelerate transmission to PET, bottle chip profits increase. The ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is driving oil price increases that are accelerating cost transmission to PET via PX-PTA. According to BaiChuan YingFu, the average price for polyester bottle chips this week (March 6-12) was 7,990 yuan per ton, an increase of 23% week-on-week. The price spread for bottle chips widened, with profits for the week reaching approximately 316 yuan per ton, an increase of 362 yuan per ton compared to the previous week. Major producers reducing contract volumes have triggered tight market supply for pickup, compounded by the peak demand season for PET in March and April, alongside industry-wide coordinated production control to counter "internal competition." Profit margins for bottle chips are showing a trend of marginal improvement.

rPET Unlocks a New Growth Blueprint, Bio-enzymatic Recycling Holds Immense Potential. Overseas environmental policies and corporate sustainability goals are jointly driving robust demand for rPET. Driven by the circular economy, overseas countries are setting environmental policy targets, and global brand giants are actively responding, collectively fueling growth in the rPET market. Europe is a key market for rPET, with regulations mandating a minimum rPET content of 25% by 2025 and 30% by 2030. Demand for rPET in Europe is projected to reach approximately 4 million tons by 2025. Bio-enzymatic recycling serves as a new engine for rPET circular regeneration. Production methods for rPET include mechanical, chemical, and bio-enzymatic processes. Traditional mechanical recycling is a downgrade process, only capable of handling waste PET bottles and yielding low-quality products. Bio-enzymatic recycling can achieve true "monomer-to-monomer" circularity, processing 100% of PET waste, including used plastic bottles and polyester fibers. The resulting product quality is comparable to virgin PET, enabling high-value applications. Furthermore, compared to chemical methods, it operates under milder reaction conditions and offers higher purity. According to Carbios' financial reports, the global high-end rPET market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% from 2025 to 2050. Bio-enzymatic rPET yields high-quality products and possesses immense development potential.

Focus is recommended on Wankai New Materials. The company possesses an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons for natural gas-based ethylene glycol, giving it significant cost advantages from its process route. Through a joint venture with France's Carbios, it is establishing a 50,000-ton rPET production capacity, with plans to gradually expand to 300,000 tons, then 500,000 tons, and a long-term plan for one million tons, unlocking substantial growth potential.

Risk warnings include downstream demand falling short of expectations, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and disruptions in raw material supply.