Abstract

Vici Properties will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 25, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, net profit and adjusted EPS, highlights segment dynamics in leasing and loans, and assesses what is most likely to drive share-price reaction, alongside a read of institutional sentiment.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, market tracking points to total revenue of 1.01 billion, up 4.24% year over year, EBIT of 936.45 million with a 1.13% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of 0.68 with a 1.74% year-over-year increase. Based on the prior quarter’s print and run-rate, the company’s gross profit margin is likely to remain structurally high for a triple-net REIT business model, while the net profit margin is expected to stay elevated, with the key swing factor being incremental rent commencements and interest income from loans. The core leasing portfolio continues to provide the dominant cash flow base and visibility, while loan interest income supplements growth and capital recycling; the main highlight remains contracted escalators and recently funded investments. The most promising near-term contribution comes from leasing, which generated 531.77 million last quarter with stable growth; management focus and investor attention remain on rent escalations and collection stability.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Vici Properties reported revenue of 1.01 billion, a gross profit margin of 99.33%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 762.00 million, a net profit margin of 75.64%, and adjusted EPS of 0.71, with year-over-year growth of 1.43% on EPS. A key financial highlight was a solid EBIT of 984.04 million, exceeding prior estimates, reflecting the durability of the triple-net lease structure and disciplined expense control. Main business revenue composition showed leasing at 531.77 million, loans at 447.99 million, golf at 8.19 million, and other revenue at 19.55 million, with leasing and loans together comprising roughly 97% of total revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Triple-net gaming and experiential leasing

The leasing segment remains the primary earnings engine. Contracted annual rent escalators support organic growth even in a slow macro environment, and the long-duration nature of Vici Properties’s master leases typically reduces vacancy risk. Investors will look for confirmation of rent collections staying at or near 100% and any updates on tenant credit metrics, particularly within regional gaming markets, as these influence perceived cash-flow durability. With last quarter’s leasing revenue at 531.77 million and gross margins near 100%, incremental revenue generally drops through at high margins, so even modest escalators can materially support EPS and AFFO. For share-price sensitivity, any announcement of new acquisitions or sale-leaseback transactions could expand the rent base beyond organic escalators, which would likely be viewed positively if cap rates are attractive and financing terms are prudent.

Most promising business: Income from loans and financing partnerships

The loans segment contributed 447.99 million last quarter, demonstrating its role as a complementary engine for total income. In the current quarter, higher-for-longer interest dynamics can keep loan yields supportive, but the company’s cost of capital and refinancing plan will determine net benefit. Investors will focus on the pipeline of partner financing deals, timing of interest accruals, and any repayments or restructurings that might impact run-rate income. If the company can source accretive, well-secured loans at spreads commensurate with risk while maintaining balance sheet flexibility, this segment can continue to enhance overall growth. However, the market will scrutinize credit concentration and the mix of floating versus fixed-rate instruments, since these determine sensitivity to rate volatility.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

The most immediate drivers are guidance updates for adjusted EPS and revenue run-rate relative to consensus, commentary on acquisition and development funding, and the interest-rate outlook’s effect on valuation multiples for net-lease REITs. Margin resilience is already high, so the focus is less on cost control and more on incremental revenue drivers and cost of capital. The spread between cap rates on new deals and the company’s blended financing cost will be central to the stock’s reaction; favorable spreads point to accretion and potential upward revisions to growth. Any new disclosure around tenant diversification or cross-collateralized structures may affect risk perception and the shares’ implied capitalization rate.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of views skews bullish, with the majority citing resilient rent coverage, predictable escalators, and an attractive external growth pipeline as reasons for constructive positioning into the print. Well-followed sell-side voices emphasize that the company’s above-average lease duration, high contractual protection, and embedded escalators underpin steady AFFO growth even if transaction markets remain selective. Positive opinions also highlight that last quarter’s EBIT beat against estimates and stable adjusted EPS lend credibility to management’s run-rate outlook. The bullish camp argues that if management confirms revenue near 1.01 billion with 4.24% year-over-year growth and reiterates disciplined capital deployment, shares could re-rate toward peers with similar growth and balance sheet profiles. The constructive stance also reflects expectations that Post Market commentary on February 25, 2026 will clarify the cadence of potential new investments, reinforcing visibility for 2026 cash flow growth.