Berkshire’s Earnings Are Coming. Wall Street Isn’t Counting on Buybacks

Dow Jones
Aug 01

Berkshire Hathaway’s profits will be an important feature of its second-quarter earnings due Saturday morning but investors will be interested in other financial details.

These include any stock buybacks in the period, cash levels, and investment activity.

Investors will be interested to see if Berkshire resumed share repurchases in the second quarter after being out of the market for its stock since May 2024. The stock has come down over 10% since peaking just before the Berkshire annual meeting in May, making it more reasonable although not cheap historically. The class A stock finished Wednesday at $712,500 while the Class B stock ended at $475, both down about 0.3%.

Berkshire will also indicate whether it bought back any stock after the second quarter ended—in the first three weeks of July—in its second quarter 10-Q report, which is also due for release Saturday morning. The best bet for any buybacks was in July since the stock weakened during the month.

Wall Street is betting there will be few or no stock buybacks in the second quarter. UBS analyst Brian Meredith is modeling none in 2025 or 2026 with the stock trading at a premium to his estimate of intrinsic value.

A resumption in stock buybacks would be viewed favorably by investors since it would signal that CEO Warren Buffett views the stock as attractively valued.

Wall Street will also be focused on whether Berkshire’s cash levels continued to rise after hitting a record in the first quarter. They totaled about $328 billion on March 31, adjusting for the impact of the late-quarter purchases of U.S. Treasury bills and for $5 billion of cash at the company’s railroad and energy businesses. This cash figure is the one preferred by Buffett.

It is a good bet cash levels rose modestly in the period in part because investment activity likely was light and Berkshire pays no dividend.

Berkshire was a net seller of about $1.5 billion of stocks in the first quarter of 2025—buying $3.2 billion and selling $4.7 billion—after selling a net $133 billion in 2024. Buffett suggested at the annual meeting in May that he didn’t take advantage of the drop in stock prices in early April to add much to Berkshire’s $300 billion equity portfolio.

On earnings, the company’s after-tax operating profits are expected to decline 8% year-over-year in the second quarter to about $7,500 per class A share, according to the FactSet consensus.

However, the results are distorted by currency fluctuations that run through Berkshire’s earnings stemming from its corporate debt denominated in foreign currencies, mainly the yen.  These one-time gains and losses really should be stripped out of the results to arrive at core profitability.

Berkshire had forex gains stemming from dollar strength in the second quarter of 2024 and likely had losses in the second quarter of 2025 due to dollar weakness. Strip out the currency effect and operating profits could be about flat, Barron’s estimates.

UBS’s Meredith recently slightly boosted his second-quarter estimate for operating earnings to $5.06 per B share from $5, equivalent to about $7,600 per A share.

He sees good insurance results, particularly at Geico, Berkshire’s auto insurance unit, where operating profit margins have been around 15%. He sees nearly 2% growth in policies in force in the second quarter—a welcome change after a contraction in most of the past five years—and a lack of sizable catastrophe losses helping the reinsurance operations.

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