Guosen Securities released a research report stating that August home appliance social retail sales continued their positive growth trend, with offline growth rates showing improvement while online growth remained relatively stable as it entered the off-season. Home appliance exports remain under pressure, declining 6% year-over-year in August. At the Berlin IFA exhibition, domestic home appliance companies made prominent appearances with new product launches, demonstrating confidence in overseas market development. The firm recommends MIDEA GROUP (000333.SZ, 00300), Xiao Xiong Dianqi (002959.SZ), Roborock Technology (688169.SH), among others.

Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

August home appliance retail growth was strong, with robotic vacuum cleaners and small kitchen appliances continuing their positive momentum. In August, with the arrival of the third batch of national subsidy funds, offline home appliance retail sentiment improved somewhat; online growth rates for essential product categories slowed slightly, but overall maintained a positive growth trend. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 3.4% year-over-year in August, with cumulative growth of 4.6%; retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment above designated size increased 14.3% year-over-year, with cumulative growth of 28.4%. As national subsidies have completed nearly a full year cycle, their stimulative effect has weakened somewhat, combined with frequent rainy weather nationwide in August, home appliance retail growth rates moderated.

According to AVC data, August air conditioner online/offline retail sales increased 6.8%/11.2% year-over-year respectively, refrigerator online/offline retail sales changed -9.3%/+16.1% year-over-year respectively, and washing machine online/offline retail sales increased 9.1%/20.4% year-over-year respectively. Kitchen major appliances and small appliances maintained retail prosperity, with August range hood, gas stove, and dishwasher retail sales growth rates maintaining around 20%; rice cooker online/offline retail sales increased 15.4%/24.1% year-over-year respectively, while air fryer online retail sales grew over 30%. New cleaning appliances maintained strong growth, with August robotic vacuum cleaner online and offline retail sales growing over 80%, and floor washing machine online/offline retail sales increasing 71.7%/27.5% respectively.

Home appliance export value declined 6% in August, showing growth resilience amid tariff disruptions. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's home appliance export value reached 60.37 billion yuan in August, down 6.3% year-over-year; calculated in US dollars, export value was $8.43 billion, down 6.6% year-over-year; export volume was 400 million units, down 3.6% year-over-year; average export price decreased 3.2% year-over-year to $20.9 per unit. Since April, affected by tariffs, China's home appliance export value decline approached 8% in May-June, while July-August saw the decline narrow slightly as tariff policies eased. Since the April tariff implementation, Chinese home appliance companies have accelerated their overseas capacity expansion, building production facilities in Southeast Asia and other regions, which is expected to impact China's home appliance export growth rates. Going forward, as tariff policies become clearer, China's home appliance exports are expected to return to a steady growth trajectory, with overseas expansion still holding great potential.

Home appliance companies unveiled new products at IFA, with Roborock entering the robotic lawn mower industry. The Berlin IFA exhibition was held from September 5-9, with domestic home appliance companies including MIDEA GROUP, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, Hisense Visual Technology, TCL, Roborock Technology, and Ecovacs making prominent appearances and launching localized new products, highlighting domestic companies' strong determination to enter overseas markets. Midea's pavilion made a stunning debut at IFA with the theme "Master Your Home," showcasing intelligent series home appliances including refrigerators, kitchen appliances, and air conditioners; Haier appeared with its latest technological achievement "AI Eye" and officially announced sponsorship of two top European football clubs; Hisense Visual Technology and TCL launched cutting-edge new TV products; Roborock Technology introduced its first all-terrain intelligent lawn mower and five-axis folding bionic robotic arm vacuum cleaner.

Core investment portfolio recommendations: For white goods, recommend MIDEA GROUP, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Zhijia, and Hisense Home Appliances; for kitchen appliances, recommend Robam Appliances; for small appliances, recommend Xiao Xiong Dianqi, Roborock Technology, and Ecovacs.

Risk warnings: Intensified market competition; demand falling short of expectations; significant increases in raw material prices.