According to media reports, U.S. President Donald Trump is privately assessing the possibility of withdrawing from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by consulting his advisors. This development has injected significant uncertainty into the ongoing critical renegotiation phase between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, casting a shadow over the future of the agreement, which governs approximately $2 trillion in trade and services.

In a recent statement, President Trump indicated that the USMCA should either expire or be replaced with a new deal negotiated separately with Mexico and Canada. He further asserted that Mexico and Canada have been taking advantage of the United States, while tariffs bring wealth to America.

Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump has asked his aides why the U.S. should not exit the pact, although he has not yet given a direct signal to withdraw. White House officials responded by stating that Trump is the ultimate decision-maker and remains committed to securing better deals for the American people, adding that any discussion of potential actions is speculative until formally announced by the President. Meanwhile, officials from the office of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that merely approving the 2019 terms is not in the national interest, and the administration intends to preserve all of Trump's options to address established issues.

The current negotiation landscape appears fragmented. In an interview, Jamieson Greer noted that talks would proceed on a bilateral basis, describing the Mexican side as currently "quite pragmatic," while discussions with Canada are "more challenging." This suggests that trade relations among the three nations are growing increasingly complex as the July 1 mandatory review deadline approaches.

Any move to withdraw from the agreement would destabilize one of the world's largest trade relationships. Even the threat of withdrawal is enough to unsettle investors and global leaders. A collapse of the pact would not only lead to the reimposition of tariff barriers, exacerbating inflationary pressures, but could also reverse three decades of efforts to integrate North American supply chains. This, in turn, could trigger economic ripple effects ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, presenting more severe challenges for the Republican Party. Influenced by this news, oil prices surged over 2% during the day.

**Review Deadline Nears Amid Bilateral Maneuvering** The USMCA faces a mandatory review scheduled for July 1, a process initially seen as routine that has now evolved into contentious negotiations. If the three countries agree to renew, the pact will remain in effect for another 16 years. Failure to reach an agreement would trigger an annual review mechanism for ten years, until the agreement expires in 2036. Any country can exit the agreement by providing six months' notice.

Officials from Jamieson Greer's office indicated that if a solution incorporating input from industry stakeholders can be reached, Greer would recommend renewing the agreement. Potential areas of focus include strengthening rules of origin for critical industrial products, deepening cooperation on critical minerals, enhancing worker protections, and addressing anti-dumping measures.

Trump has demanded additional concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City beyond trade, pressuring them to resolve unrelated issues including immigration, drug trafficking, and defense. Trump has publicly stated his desire to see Canada and Mexico prosper, but has also bluntly remarked that "the problem is we don't need their products," hinting at a preference for negotiating through bilateral deals.

**Canada Faces "More Challenging" Situation** Trump has recently intensified pressure on both Canada and Mexico, with particular focus on Canada. He has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Canadian goods and has suggested raising tariffs on Canadian aircraft to 50% if Canada fails to approve certain Gulfstream jets. Additionally, he has refused to open a new bridge connecting Ontario and Michigan.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that he had a "positive" phone call with Trump on Tuesday, discussing the bridge threat and the USMCA review. However, tensions between the two nations persist. Last month, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Carney called for middle powers to build new alliances to resist economic coercion from superpowers, describing the old rules-based international order as a "fiction" – comments that angered Trump. Furthermore, Trump's remarks about NATO forces not being on the front lines in Afghanistan have caused discontent among Canadians, leading some to boycott American products.

In contrast, the U.S. Trade Representative views Mexico's approach to the negotiations as more pragmatic, even though Trump has also vowed to impose tariffs on Mexican products shipping oil to Cuba.

**Tariff Risks and Inflation Concerns** A U.S. withdrawal from the USMCA could trigger immediate economic pain, subjecting more Mexican and Canadian exports to higher U.S. tariffs. Currently, most goods traded under the agreement are exempt from Trump's global tariffs, with specific exceptions like automobiles. According to 2024 trade data, Mexico and Canada are the United States' two largest trading partners and the biggest buyers of U.S. goods.

U.S. business groups and lawmakers are almost certain to oppose withdrawal from the pact. The prospect of higher tariffs would exacerbate inflation and affordability issues, a sensitive topic ahead of the November midterm elections. If withdrawal prompts retaliation from Canada and Mexico, it could hinder Trump's campaign promises to boost U.S. exports.

**Trump's Negotiating Strategy and Stance** Trump frequently solicits opinions from key advisors on various issues. While these inquiries reflect his thinking, they do not necessarily预示 final action. It remains unclear whether Trump will publicly threaten to withdraw or issue a formal warning. Analysis suggests that if he takes this step, it may be more of a bargaining chip to secure a more favorable deal rather than a genuine intention to have the U.S. exit the agreement.

Although Trump was the original negotiator of the agreement, his views on North American trade relations have shifted. During a visit to a Ford Motor plant near Detroit, he reportedly described the USMCA as "irrelevant," though he stopped short of explicitly stating an intention to withdraw. This unpredictability has become a hallmark of Trump's second term, keeping global leaders guessing. Despite his threats to impose tariffs on North American steel and aluminum, he has also shown willingness to preserve much of the USMCA, particularly the tariff exemption mechanism for the automotive industry following warnings from the sector.