China New Town Development Company Limited (HKG:1278) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 53%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
While the stock has risen 11% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
View our latest analysis for China New Town Development
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, China New Town Development moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
Arguably, the revenue drop of 8.6% a year for half a decade suggests that the company can't grow in the long term. That could explain the weak share price.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
If you are thinking of buying or selling China New Town Development stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
We've already covered China New Town Development's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. China New Town Development's TSR of was a loss of 48% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
China New Town Development provided a TSR of 8.9% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 8% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - China New Town Development has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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