金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，港股近一轮上涨多由南向资金及短线被动资金推动，长线主动资金流入尚不明显。从当前的叙事逻辑来看，长线资金持续流入还需要看到更明朗的盈利前景，包括：技术持续进步，包括开源模型的进化升级和AI应用持续向产业纵深推进；内地AI生态长期增长趋势初步验证和更清晰化的商业逻辑；宏观叙事节奏相配合，即增量经济政策落地带来需求端进一步的改善。该行指，两会临近，增量政策有望成为新催化剂。随着两会临近，市场对增量财政政策的关注度逐步提升，预计对盘面有一定的支撑。同时，AI科技主线交易拥挤度已相对较高，AI交易热情短期内盖过海外风险计价，需注意调整压力。投资者在把握科技成长主线的基础上，可适度均衡配置红利资产。该行续指，看好港股AI及科网板块，特别是在DeepSeek等国产大模型推动下，AI基础设施提供商和算力标的正迎来估值重构窗口，重点布局具备技术积累和商业化能力的龙头。半导体产业链亦值得关注，尤其是在产业链本地化加速下，具备进口替代潜力的内地芯片设计企业机会明显。建议仍以高股息板块作为防御性底仓，重点关注电力公用事业、电信运营商、银行等现金流稳定、股息率具备吸引力的板块。
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