DHL Parent's Resilience Against Tariff Impact in Focus -- Earnings Preview

Dow Jones
29 Apr

By Adria Calatayud

 

DHL owner Deutsche Post is scheduled to report results for the first quarter on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

 

REVENUE FORECAST: Analysts expect first-quarter revenue at the German logistics group--also known as DHL Group--to come in at 20.79 billion euros ($23.75 billion), according to consensus estimates compiled by the company. For the same period last year, the group reported revenue of 20.25 billion euros.

 

PROFIT FORECAST: DHL Group's quarterly earnings before interest and taxes is forecast to be 1.32 billion euros, according to the company-compiled consensus. This compares with the 1.31 billion euros in EBIT the company reported for the year-earlier period.

 

Shares in the DHL parent gained 16% during the first quarter, but the stock gave up much of those gains since U.S. President Trump unveiled plans to impose sweeping import tariffs. From the start of the year through Monday's close, shares were up 9.4%.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

 

--TARIFFS: Higher U.S. tariffs are expected to hinder economic and trade activity and should lead to tailwinds for transport and logistics companies, analysts at JPMorgan said in a note. Nevertheless, DHL Group seems well positioned to benefit from shifts in global trade due to the diversified nature of the group and its focus on managing regional exposures, the JPM analysts said. The company is pinning hopes on opportunities that might emerge from shifts in trade patterns triggered by President Trump's tariff blitz and increased demand for customs services due to greater complexity, Warburg Research Christian Cohrs said in a note. "However, we remain sceptical as to whether these factors will ultimately be sufficient to offset the negative impact," Cohrs said.

--OUTLOOK: The company is guiding for an EBIT of at least 6.0 billion euros this year. Results from Switzerland's Kuehne + Nagel International last week showed resilience in sea freight and air freight volumes given the current environment and its unchanged guidance will reassure against the background of uncertainty driven by U.S. tariffs, analyst at JPM said.

 

Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 29, 2025 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT)

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