While the first 100 days of Donald Trump's Presidency have been dismal for stock markets, the next 100 could be crucial-and things are starting to look brighter.

The S&P 500 has fallen 7.8% since Trump took office in January -- on track for the worst start to a presidency since Richard Nixon's second term in 1973, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

But the period is ending on a strong note after the index notched its fifth consecutive day of gains Monday, the longest winning streak this year.

The next 100 days should feature several deals between the U.S. and its major trading partners. It's already day 20 of Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that deals with India and South Korea are close.

There are more signs of tariffs being eased--Trump is expected to water down auto levies Tuesday and Bessent said it was up to China to de-escalate trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Both sides appear open to working things out.

While tax cuts may materialize in the summer, lifting consumers' finances, the impact of tariffs will likely start to hurt them sooner, hitting shoppers and the economy hard--unless the White House rows back considerably on the levies it has announced so far.

There's still time to avoid the worst of the damage. Corporate earnings so far paint a picture of uncertainty, rather than one of disaster--and the same can be said for economic data.

Earnings from four of the so-called Magnificent Seven megacap stocks--Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple--will kick off the next 100 days. If the Big Tech momentum started by Alphabet last week can continue, then the market's recovery can gather pace.

Ultimately, though, trade developments will dictate the market moves. After 100 days of nasty surprises, some pleasant ones may be on the way.

-- Callum Keown

***

Tariff Revenue So Far Falls Short of President's Number

President Donald Trump has boasted that his import tariffs are bringing in $3 billion of revenue a day, suggesting they could one day replace income taxes. But the Treasury's daily statements show much lower tariff receipts, certainly not enough to replace the billions a day collected in individual income tax.

   -- Since tariffs rates were raised to current levels on April 9, the U.S. 
      has collected $14.7 billion in revenue from imports. While that's a 135% 
      jump from the same time in 2024 and higher than import revenue in March, 
      it adds up to a daily average of $918 million, or less than one-third of 
      Trump's estimate. 
 
   -- Individual income tax totaled $6.6 billion a day last year. To reach that, 
      tariffs would have to be 74%, which would effectively cut off trade and 
      thus blunt tariff collections. Tariffs are currently set at 10% across 
      the board, 25% for certain products, and 145% for goods from China. 
 
   -- Main Street is reacting to tariffs and Trump's trade war by cutting jobs 
      and slowing hiring, Hasbro is cutting $1 billion in costs, and Dow has 
      postponed capital spending because of tariff uncertainty. Norfolk 
      Southern CEO Mark George said the company is trying to "control the 
      controllables." 
 
   -- Chinese goods exported to the U.S. are expected to contract by two-thirds 
      this year if tariffs are maintained, according to a Goldman Sachs report. 
      Goods from the communication equipment, apparel, and chemical product 
      sectors represent a high share of China's U.S.-bound goods. 

What's Next: The White House is expected to unveil details about what negotiations with countries like India and South Korea have produced as it tries to de-escalate Trump's trade war. But any "deals" it announces aren't likely to ease the worry over tariffs that has shaken financial markets.

-- Adam Levine, Adam Clark, Reshma Kapadia, and Janet H. Cho

***

Congress Returns With Tax Cut Bill as Its Top Agenda Item

Congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump have promised to slash taxes, reduce the deficit, and avoid making substantial cuts to programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Now they're going to have to reconcile those commitments, and the most likely casualty will be reducing the federal debt.

   -- Congress returned from break on Monday. The Republican agenda's top item 
      is a bill to extend the tax cuts for individuals that were originally 
      included in Trump's 2017 tax law. House Republicans hope to finish it by 
      Memorial Day, while Senate leaders don't plan to finish their version 
      before July. 
 
   -- To get to this point, Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), Senate Majority 
      Leader John Thune (R., S.D.), and Trump had to thread the needle between 
      fiscal hawks concerned about the burgeoning federal debt, at about $37 
      trillion, and moderates concerned about cutting Medicaid or Medicare. 
 
   -- Lawmakers will likely seek steep budget cuts anyway. One likely suspect 
      is Medicaid. House Republicans are seeking more than half of proposed 
      $1.5 trillion in cuts from programs that are overseen by the House 
      Committee on Energy and Commerce, which oversees that program and 
      Medicare. 
 
   -- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D, N.Y.) said Monday that 
      Democrats remain strongly opposed to cuts to Medicaid and food assistance 
      and plan an aggressive push back to the GOP proposals. He scheduled a 
      speech for Wednesday morning outlining his blueprint. 

What's Next: Later this week, the Treasury is expected to give an update on when it expects to exhaust its authority to issue more debt. That will give a de facto deadline to Congress for when it needs to pass the tax bill, which will also include a provision to raise the federal debt ceiling.

-- Joe Light and Liz Moyer

***

BP Cuts Stock Buybacks. Earnings Are Warning for Exxon, Chevron.

Four of the biggest oil companies are reporting earnings this week. The first, London-based BP, didn't make a great start as it reduced its share buyback program after a big drop in earnings.

   -- BP, which is being pressured by activist investor Elliott Management, 
      reduced its buyback plan to $750 million a quarter from $1.75 billion. 
      That will bolster the company's balance sheet, which is carrying a 
      relatively high debt load. But investors were disappointed, which hurt 
      the share price in early trading. 
 
   -- Part of the drop in earnings was down to lower oil prices, which will 
      hurt all the majors including Exxon and Shell, but BP also has its own 
      homegrown problems. It's trying to catch up to the profitability of peers 
      after languishing for the past five years. 
 
   -- CEO Murray Auchincloss has a plan to focus on more oil and gas production, 
      a reversal of the previous strategy that called for lower fossil fuel 
      output and more spending on low-carbon energy sources. He also wants to 
      lift free cash flow by 20% a year. 
 
   -- He's running out of time. Elliott has built a stake of more than 5% and 
      is pushing for more aggressive targets for cash-flow, cost cuts, and 
      capital expenditure. 

What's Next:The bigger question for the energy industry is how to respond to the 20% drop in crude prices over the past year, and there's little sign of a pickup with the economic outlook clouded by tariffs. Exxon, Chevron, and Shell all report earnings on Friday.

-- Brian Swint

***

IBM Pledges to Spend $150 Billion on U.S. Manufacturing

International Business Machines will invest $150 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, including spending more than $30 billion in research and development to make mainframe and quantum computers as tariffs threaten to increase the cost of making those products overseas.

   -- IBM currently makes mainframes in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., and operates a 
      fleet of quantum computers, a growing sector of the software industry. 
      The software company said its investment reaffirms its commitment to U.S. 
      innovation and economic opportunity. 
 
   -- IBM's announcement follows billions of dollars in announced spending 
      increases by companies including Apple, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor 
      Manufacturing Co., as the Trump administration pushes corporate America 
      to bring more product manufacturing to the U.S. 
 
   -- IBM sees a big opportunity in quantum computing, which it says represents 
      one of the biggest technology platform shifts in decades and will be able 
      to solve problems that today's conventional computers cannot solve. It is 
      also rolling out its next-generation mainframe computer with artificial 
      intelligence features. 
 
   -- The Department of Government Efficiency's cost-cutting drive resulted in 
      the cancellation of some of IBM's government contract work, IBM 
      executives acknowledged last week. The cancellations represent about $100 
      million of order backlog. 

What's Next: IBM isn't the only tech giant navigating the administration's tariff policies. Dutch chip maker NXP Semiconductors said it is facing a "very uncertain" environment influenced by tariffs. It forecasts second-quarter revenue will fall from 4% to 10% from a year ago after first-quarter revenue fell 9%.

-- Tae Kim and Janet H. Cho

***

This Start-Up Aims to Upend Defense Like Tesla Did for Autos

A defense start-up called Anduril is aiming to do to Lockheed Martin what Tesla did to Ford Motor. It seeks to put autonomy and software at the core of its products, as Tesla has done in upending the auto industry. It might disrupt the entire defense business along the way.

   -- The company was established in 2017 and is now valued at more than $30 
      billion. The core of its technology is an AI brain called Lattice, used 
      in its drone-tracking Sentry tower, its Ghost reconnaissance drone, its 
      Roadrunner interceptor drone, and the autonomous unmanned aircraft Fury. 
 
   -- Executive Chairman Trae Stephens once worked at Palantir Technologies, 
      which was trying to sell software to the Defense Department. In 2013, 
      Stephens joined the Founders Fund, the Silicon Valley venture capital 
      fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, and was given the task of finding another 
      Palantir or SpaceX. 
 
   -- Anduril has the money required to grow and has no immediate plans to go 
      public, Stephens says. It is still relatively small. Total contract 
      awards from the U.S. government amount to $1.1 billion, according to 
      publicly available government databases. The comparable number for 
      Lockheed is $750 billion. 
 
   -- For fiscal year 2024, Anduril won some $640 million in contract awards. 
      Lockheed added $39 billion to its total. But public databases exclude 
      classified contracts. A person familiar with the company's business says 
      Anduril has amassed some $4 billion in contract awards, with a goal to 
      triple that in three years. 

What's Next: Lockheed had no comment about the new competition. Vertically integrated large-scale manufacturing is part of Anduril's strategy. In January, it said that Columbus, Ohio, will be the location of Arsenal-1, its first so-called hyperscale factory. For the full article, read here.

-- Al Root

***

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 29, 2025 06:51 ET (10:51 GMT)

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