金吾财讯 | 东吴证券研报指，银河娱乐(00027)1Q25实现总博收109.4亿港元，同比增长13.6%，环比下滑0.8%。其中贵宾/中场（含角子机）博收分别为19.8/89.6亿港元，同比分别增长52.3%/7.6%，环比分别增长28.5%/下滑5.6%。相较于澳门博彩全行业贵宾/中场（含角子机）博收同比分别增长0.5%/3.3%的情况，公司两大业务增长均较为明显，带动公司贵宾/中场（含角子机）市占率同比分别提升4.8pct/1.4pct至14.1%/21.4%，整体市占率同比提升2.2pct至19.5%。同时，据管理层数据，五一黄金周澳门入境旅客数量同比增长约40%，公司物业到访人数同比几乎翻倍；行业整体博收同比增长约12%，公司表现略超行业，市占率有望持续上行。该行指，公司经调整EBITDA对应利润率为29.4%，同环比均有明显提升，主要系公司1Q25费用控制严格，日均运营费用同比下降约7%，环比下降约5%。展望2025年，管理层预计日均运营费用不会随着嘉佩乐的开业而出现大幅的上升。该行预测公司2025-2027年净收入预测为482.7/513.8/531.7亿港元；预测经调整物业EBITDA预测为142.5/156.7/161.4亿港元;当前股价对应2025/2026/2027年EV/EBITDA分别为8.8/8.0/7.7倍。该行的目标价为44.3港元，维持“买入”评级。
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