交银国际:美国药价改革影响或可控但仍待观察 持续推进创新+估值修复逻辑

智通财经
16 May

智通财经APP获悉,交银国际发布研报称,此次美国降低药价行政令实为特朗普第一任期最惠国药价政策的延续,但尚缺乏具体实施细则,叠加存在各利益集团博弈,因此当前板块存在一定程度上的过度担忧,且国产低价药品或许有潜在市场机会,但仍需重点观察后续执行情况。中国内地集采政策优化给予医院和企业更多灵活性及自主权,药品挂网规则统一则有利于加速行业出清,利好优质龙头处方药企业。

交银国际表示,考虑到2H25医保丙类目录等利好政策有望正式落地、板块回调后估值仍处历史低位,建议短期情绪波动企稳后可重点关注三方面机会:

1)荣昌生物(09995)、康方生物(09926)、信达生物(01801)、德琪医药(06996)、传奇生物(LEGN.US)等短期催化剂丰富、盈利高增长或盈亏平衡时间点明确、估值有较大修复弹性的创新药标的;2)先声药业(02096)、翰森制药(03692)、通化东宝(600867.SH)等存在业绩增速+估值倍数共同修复潜力的处方药企;3)后续促消费+鼓励生育政策出台有望推动消费医疗相关标的在下游需求、盈利增长预期和估值上的进一步修复,同时业务本身对地缘政治格局变化免疫,包括固生堂(02273)、锦欣生殖(01951)等。

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