奶价底部企稳,拐点在即。根据农业农村部最新数据,原奶价格为3.07元/公斤,连续约11周环比微幅震荡 ,已进入底部盘整区。现代牧业的公司数据亦可验证,虽然24年原奶价格同比下降10.4%至3.61元/公斤,但跌幅呈现收窄态势,24H1快速下行至3.66元/公斤,但我们测算24H2售价约3.56元/公斤,环比跌幅仅低个位数。奶价下行最快的时期已经过去,牛群供给持续减少,目前行业已现周期底部特征。牛只...
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