金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指,同程旅行(00780)公布1Q25业绩:总收入为44亿元人民币,同比增长13%,较招银国际预期/彭博一致预期高0.7%/0.9%,主因核心在线旅游(OTA)业务收入超出1%,但部分被旅游业复苏慢于预期所抵消;调整后净利润为7.88亿元人民币,同比增长41%,较招银国际预期/彭博一致预期高6.6%/7.3%,由核心在线旅游业务超出预期的运营杠杆以及旅游业务的运营优化所推动。1Q25核心在线旅游业务的营业利润率(OPM)扩大至29.2%(1Q24:22.6%)。考虑到核心OTA运营效率提升好于预期,以及利润率相对较低的旅游业务复苏慢于预期的综合影响,该行将2025-2027年的收入预测下调2%,但维持调整后净利润预测基本不变。该行仍预测2025年核心OTA业务的营业利润/调整后净利润将同比增长25%/18%。该行基于DCF得出的目标价维持在24.0港元不变,相当于15.6x2025E调整后PE。维持“买入”评级。
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