（转自：国泰君安期货）

上市首日，全合约大概率高开。交易所公布的挂牌价为18365元/吨，6月9日保太价19400元/吨，考虑部分注册品牌贴水于保太价，则2025年11月较便宜可供交割品的合理估值在19455-19860元/吨。因此，挂牌价显著偏低，在首日集合竞价时或有6-8%左右的上涨幅度，若上市交易情绪亢奋，或给到更高位置。然而铸造铝合金基本面偏弱，预计上市初期大概率高开低走。月差及ADC12-A00价差或遵循季节性规律，淡季走弱和旺季走强，当下两者仍有下跌空间，但盈亏比或相对欠佳，建议关注年中左右的跨期正套与多AD空AL头寸，待三季度兑现收益。

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