金吾财讯 | 国元国际发研报指，隆众资讯数据显示，从5月初到6月初，2.0mm光伏玻璃价格从13-13.5元/平米下降至12元/平米以下，3.2mm光伏玻璃价格从22-22.5元/平米下降至21元/平米以下。截至6月初，库存天数已达29.72天，库存压力较大。光伏玻璃行业毛利率持续回落，目前已经创新低，约为-9.47%。光伏玻璃价格下跌主要受430/531抢装潮结束，需求回落，库存压力以及价格内卷等多重因素所致。6月组件排产预期降幅加大，但供给端减量节奏滞后，供需差进一步扩大。若组件需求持续低迷，部分企业将被迫冷修，Q3供给端进一步收缩，预期Q4有望迎来阶段性修复。但考虑到当前高库存，价格反弹可能较为温和。光伏玻璃产能释放具有刚性，供给端调整需要一定周期。在供给侧产能出清阶段，公司作为龙头企业在供应链管控、规模化效应、技术先发优势等方面表现突出，盈利水平与二、三线企业进一步拉开差距。该机构表示，信义光能(00968)作为信义能源的控股母公司，双方联合公告将选定的太阳能发电场项目出售给新成立的REIT，将提前锁定存量高补贴项目的收益，出售收益将改善现金流；而且REIT模式下，电站收益通过分红方式体现，将有效规避未来电价波动风险。该机构更新公司盈利预测，给予公司3.06港元/股目标价，对应2025年12倍PE，目标价较现价有19%的涨幅空间，给予“持有”评级。
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