中信证券指出6月以来人民币汇率呈现“低波+韧性”的特征并基本实现“三价合一”。归因来看美元指数的趋势性走弱、国内基本面托底和政策发力、央行稳汇率操作更加灵活、客盘结汇需求释放等成为人民币汇率韧性的重要来源。往后看美国对华存量关税对于出口的压力仍不可忽视但对于汇率而言更为关键的在于国内消费等政策的对冲力度、以及中美关税缓和期过后的中美经贸磋商进度。在央行灵活的稳汇率政策操作下预计人民币汇率短期或延续低波状态。
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