银河证券研报指出，美的集团2025Q1营业收入1278亿元，同比+20.5%；归母净利润124亿元，同比+38.0%，当时超市场预期。预计由于出口受美国关税政策负面影响，家电行业2025Q2整体收入增速将环比放缓。公司也将受此影响，但整体还将保持较好增速。预计公司2025Q2营业收入增速+7~9%，归母净利润增速+10~15%。考虑公司在家电业务中的竞争力和工业业务中的成长性，预计即使未来几个季度家电行业景气度下行，公司依然有能力保持稳健增长。考虑到公司2024年分红率已经提升至69%，即使维持稳定，当前估值对应的2025年分红收益率高达5.5%，维持公司盈利预测，预计25/26/27年归母净利润增速分别为14.6%/11.5%/11.0%，对应PE 12.5x/11.2x/10.1x。认为随着无风险利率下行，公司的高分红率将推动公司估值提升，维持“推荐”评级。
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