港汇偏软兼港息回落,富邦银行(香港)投资策略及研究部主管潘国光形容,对外资而言港元资产变得更具吸引力,如果港元跟随美元续弱,对外币再跌一至两成,港人外游消费力会下降,资金会留在香港,内地等资金亦会更希望在香港买楼,支持明年住宅价格回升5%。
特朗普倾向弱美元,潘国光估计,美汇指数18个月内会再跌至85至90水平,同时,全球投资者由美元分散的趋势会持续,港股可望受惠,加上中美贸易战最坏时机料已过去,12个月内恒指有机会升至27000点水平。
当美元下跌,美股应该会获得支持,潘国光预计,特朗普任期内会继续有不同政策推动美股向上,最大政策风险为美国财政赤字进一步向上升,美债可能受压,但相信白宫会维稳,包括以再度回购美债等手段限制美债跌幅。
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