RBC资本市场策略师将美联储重启降息的预估时间从9月推迟至12月，理由是决策者需要更多时间来评估通胀与劳动力市场状况。

　　利率策略师Blake Gwinn和Izaac Brook在周五的报告中写道：“‘观望’模式只有在出现以下两种迹象时才会被打破，其一是与关税相关的通胀触顶回落且保持相对温和（即未蔓延至未加税商品或服务领域，也未影响长期通胀预期）；其二是劳动力市场出现进一步疲软。”他们指出，“仅有其中之一可能都不足以促使行动”。

　　策略师预测，美联储将在今年12月启动25个基点的首次降息，并在之后的每次政策会议上继续以相同幅度降息，直至2026年7月前将基准利率降至3%，这一水平是美联储官员对长期中性利率的预估中值。

　　他们写道，“我们仍将下一轮降息周期视为对利率的‘正常化恢复’，而非一种迫切进入宽松状态的举措”。

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