《大行》里昂：对极兔速递(01519.HK)东南亚市场有信心升目标价至8.9元

阿斯达克财经

Jul 09

里昂发表研究报告指，极兔速递－Ｗ(01519.HK) 在今年第二季度于东南亚、中国内地及新市场的包裹量按年各增长66%、15%及24%，这主要得益于电商平台(如TikTok Shop、Temu和Shein)促销力度加大与产品多样化，以及极兔速递透过降价策略取得的市场份额提升。
该行认为，东南亚市场具有人口红利优势，预期电商平台将持续加大资源投入以推动销售，为极兔速递在该区域带来持续成长动能，且凭借其在中国市场累积的规模和营运经验，预计能有效降低成本，维持稳定的单位盈利能力，并加速市场份额扩大。因此里昂调升了极兔速递2025至2027年的包裹量预测，分别提高7%、13%和15%

鉴于东南亚市场包裹量强劲增长的势头，里昂预期极兔速递早东南亚业务将贡献更大比例的利润。尽管因竞争加剧，里昂下调了极兔速递在中国业务的包裹量预测及单位盈利能力改善趋势。整体而言，里昂预测东南亚的强劲增长可抵消中国业务的影响，并将2025年、2026年和2027年净利预测分别上调6%、10%、10%。
里昂表示基于极兔速递2026年调整后净利，采用不变的东南亚和中国业务目标市盈率18倍、11倍，将极兔速递目标价从每股8.1元升至8.9元，重申“跑赢大市”评级。(hc/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-08 16:25。)

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