光大证券研报表示展望下半年油运市场受原油消费需求疲软和OPEC+增产两方面因素影响。预计原油消费需求方面的扰动因素较少当前需求有望随贸易冲突缓和以及宏观经济向好实现边际改善而OPEC+的超预期增产有望持续提振原油运输需求2025年下半年油运景气有望回升。长期来看随着非OPEC+国家原油市场份额的提升西非、巴西、美国及挪威等国原油运输需求有望持续增加叠加中东地缘风险隐忧原油运输格局有望重塑运距的增加有望使原油运输需求进一步扩充油运具备长期景气基础。
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