宏观经济中国经济 - 出口反弹,下半年面临阻力受对美出口降幅收窄推动,中国6月出口好于预期。运输设备和芯片出口保持强劲,但劳动密集型产品持续低迷。因人工智能相关需求强劲,铜矿石、铜制品和集成电路进口量均回升,提振进口表现。中美海运价格暴跌60%,表明抢出口效应可能已提前透支需求。展望未来,中美贸易谈判或将左右中国政策走向。在我们基准情景下,中美可能就部分贸易问题达成共识并签署第一阶段协议,中国逐步...
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