汽车行业车企车系跟踪报告：4-5月自主份额升6PP至70% 高端品牌提升显著

华创证券

Jul 14, 2025

作为汽车销量结构报告系列之一，我们季度更新车企车系销量数据，以把握自主车企及相关零部件在国内销售、出货份额、速度、空间的变化。2025 年部分主流车型价格继续下移，因此我们从2025 年1 月起调整变化较大车型的价格带分类，价格带数据同比会因此产生较大波动，我们建议将两个价格带结合分析以减少数据口径变化的影响。4-5 月自主份额继续提升，同比+6.1PP 至70%。具体：a) 自主：4-5 月狭义...

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class=\"title\">\n汽车行业车企车系跟踪报告：4-5月自主份额升6PP至70% 高端品牌提升显著\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-14 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714185648a6a89ff5&s=b><strong>华创证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为汽车销量结构报告系列之一，我们季度更新车企车系销量数据，以把握自主车企及相关零部件在国内销售、出货份额、速度、空间的变化。2025 年部分主流车型价格继续下移，因此我们从2025 年1 月起调整变化较大车型的价格带分类，价格带数据同比会因此产生较大波动，我们建议将两个价格带结合分析以减少数据口径变化的影响。4-5 月自主份额继续提升，同比+6.1PP 至70%。具体：a) 自主：4-5 月狭义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714185648a6a89ff5&s=b\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ZK","symbol_name":"极氪","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714185648a6a89ff5&s=b","article_id":"2551290004","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250714185648a6a89ff5&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551290004","pubTimestamp":1752422400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"4-5 月自主份额继续提升，同比+6.1PP 至70%。分价格带，4-5 月自主份额在多数价格带都有所提升，20 万元以上的高端产品线尤为显著。2) 10-15 万元：自主份额升2.0%至73%，日系德系受冲击影响最大。4-5 月自主份额58%、同比+5.8PP、环比-0.6PP，自主大幅增长主要受宋L、深蓝S07 等车型放量及乐道L60、传祺M8 等车型降价影响。4) 20-25 万元：自主份额大幅提升至62%，BBA 缩量明显。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","82333":"长城汽车-R","601127":"赛力斯","601633":"长城汽车","603809":"豪能股份","ZK":"极氪","09660":"地平线机器人-W","LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","GWLLF":"Great Wall Motor Company, Ltd."},"translate_title":"Tracking report of car companies in the automobile industry: Independent share rose by 6PP to 70% from April to May, and high-end brands improved significantly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.9,"82333":0.9,"601127":0.9,"601633":0.9,"603809":0.9,"GWLLF":0.9,"ZK":0.9,"02015":0.9,"09660":0.9,"LI":0.9},"content_text":"作为汽车销量结构报告系列之一，我们季度更新车企车系销量数据，以把握自主车企及相关零部件在国内销售、出货份额、速度、空间的变化。2025 年部分主流车型价格继续下移，因此我们从2025 年1 月起调整变化较大车型的价格带分类，价格带数据同比会因此产生较大波动，我们建议将两个价格带结合分析以减少数据口径变化的影响。4-5 月自主份额继续提升，同比+6.1PP 至70%。具体：a) 自主：4-5 月狭义乘用车批发销量（下同）322 万辆、同比+23%、环比+16%、占比70%/+6.1PP，1-5 月累计762 万辆/+27%，占比69%/+7.7PP。b) 合资（含特斯拉上海）：4-5 月135 万辆、同比-7.1%、环比+14%、占比30%/-6.1PP，1-5 月累计336 万辆/-10%，占比31%/-7.7PP。分价格带，4-5 月自主份额在多数价格带都有所提升，20 万元以上的高端产品线尤为显著。2025 年4-5 月，自主0-20 万元份额76%/+9.8PP，20 万元以上53%/+13PP。具体：1) 0-10 万元：自主高占比基础上份额微增1.4%至84%（4-5 月，下同）。1-5M25 行业合计销量357 万辆/+15%。按各车系2025 年1-5 月累计份额（下同），自主85%/+3.9PP、日系7.1%/-2.3PP、德系5.1%/+0.3PP、其他2.8%/-0.1PP、美系0.3%/-1.8PP。4-5 月自主份额84%、同比+1.4PP、环比-0.8PP。自主增长主要受星愿、五菱宏光mini 等车型放量及元UP、海狮05 等车型价格下调导致。按0-15 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比79%、同比+1.4PP、环比-0.7PP，自主份额增长稳定。2) 10-15 万元：自主份额升2.0%至73%，日系德系受冲击影响最大。1-5M25行业合计销量370 万辆/+29%，自主占72%/+3.4PP、日系14%/-2.1PP、德系9.9%/-1.7PP、美系2.3%/+1.3PP、其他2.0%/-0.8PP。4-5 月自主份额73%、同比+2.0PP、环比-0.7PP，自主增长主要受秦L、小鹏MONA03 等车型放量及海豹等车型价格带下调影响。按10-20 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比69%、同比+4.6PP、环比-0.4PP。份额同比提升主要受秦L、宋L、银河E5 等车型放量影响。3) 15-20 万元：自主份额加速提升5.8%至58%，仍有一定上行空间。1-5M25行业合计132 万辆/-7.6%，自主占57%/+8.4PP、日系15%/-8.2PP、德系19%/-3.3PP、美系7%/+1.6PP、其他2.5%/+1.6PP。4-5 月自主份额58%、同比+5.8PP、环比-0.6PP，自主大幅增长主要受宋L、深蓝S07 等车型放量及乐道L60、传祺M8 等车型降价影响。按15-25 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比60%、同比+16.5PP、环比+4.3PP，份额同环比大幅增长主要受小米SU7、唐L、宋L 等车型放量影响。4) 20-25 万元：自主份额大幅提升至62%，BBA 缩量明显。1-5M25 行业合计销量99 万辆/+21%，自主56%/+32PP、德系23%/-18PP、美系15%/-12PP、日系5%/+0.02PP、其他0.6%/-2.1PP。自主大幅增主要受小米SU7、理想L6 等主销配置降价至该价格带、极氪7X 等车型放量影响。此外德系大幅下降还受宝马X1、大众CC 等车型价格带下降及BBA 主销车型（C 级、3 系、A4L 等）缩量影响。4-5 月自主份额62.2%、同比+35.3PP、环比+11.1PP，自主同环比大幅增长主要受唐L、汉L 等新车型放量影响。按20-30 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比50%、同比+13PP、环比+5.5PP。份额大幅增长主要受小米SU7、唐L、汉L、理想L6 等车型放量影响。5) 25-30 万元：特斯拉强势价格带，自主份额有所下降。1-5M25 销量53 万辆/-2.1%，按车系份额美系37%/-2.3PP、自主26%/-21PP、德系19%/+15PP、日系11%/+3PP、其他6.6%/+4.9PP。自主同比大幅下降主要为小米SU7、理想L6 等主力车型价格带调整下沉，以及问界M7、极氪001 等车型缩量。4-5 月自主份额23%、同比-29PP、环比-8.7PP。按25-40 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比42%、同比+0.3PP、环比+3.3PP，份额同环比微增，预计后续将受问界M8、领克900 等新车放量提振。6) 30-40 万元：BBA 高端车型持续缩量，自主份额大幅提升。1-5M25 销量65 万辆/-18%，按车系份额自主49%/+17PP、德系36%/-10PP、日系5%/-1.1PP、其他4.8%/-5.4PP、美系4.7%/+0.3PP。德系大幅下降主要受奥迪A6 等车型缩量及奥迪Q5、宝马X3 降价离开该价格带影响，自主大幅增加主要受问界M8、腾势N9 等新车型放量影响。4-5 月自主份额56%、同比+21PP、环比+10PP。按30 万元以上合并看，4-5M25 自主占比58%、同比+15PP、环比+8.1PP。份额大幅提升主要受问界M8、领克900 等新车型放量影响。7) 40 万以上（不含进口）：自主保持主导地位，但同比受9 系列六座车缩量影响。1-5M25 销量14 万辆/-7.8%，按车系份额自主67%/+2PP、德系28%/-6PP、美系0.4%/-0.7PP。4-5 月自主份额68.8%、同比-5.6PP、环比-1.3PP，自主同比小幅下降主要受理想L9、问界M9 等车型缩量影响。各价格带细分市场销冠已由自主车企车型引领。车企层面，比亚迪占据4 个销冠，奇瑞、理想、小米、极氪、赛力斯、蔚来各占据一个。车型层面，自主电车在多个价格带的销量榜单中占据榜首。随着自主品牌在20 万元以上中高端价格区间加快车型布局，BBA 等合资品牌及特斯拉的销量也在不同程度上受到冲击并出现下滑。其中：1) 0-10 万元SUV、轿车销冠（25 年1-5 月累计销量计算，后同）：分别为奇瑞瑞虎8 2.0 万辆/月、比亚迪海鸥4.7 万辆/月。2) 10-15 万元：比亚迪宋PLUS DM 3.7 万辆/月、比亚迪海豹3.2 万辆/月。3) 15-20 万元：比亚迪宋EV 1.3 万辆/月、大众新帕萨特 1.8 万辆/月。4) 20-25 万元：理想L6 1.6 万辆/月、小米SU7 2.6 万辆/月。5) 25-30 万元：特斯拉Model Y 3.3 万辆/月、极氪001 0.3 万辆/月。6) 30-40 万元：北京奔驰GLC 1.2 万辆/月、一汽大众奥迪A6L 1.3 万辆/月。7) 40 万元以上：问界M9 1.0 万辆/月、蔚来ET7 0.03 万辆/月。投资建议：自主今年前五月在经济型价格带（0-20 万元）份额继续提升，并在此前较薄弱的20 万以上高端价格带加速对特斯拉及BBA 带来冲击，电动车开始占据部分价格带销量榜首。展望2025 年，自主在各价格带份额有望继续提升，预计整体自主份额从2024 年65%提升到今年70%+，尤其普通品牌B级车、豪华品牌A 级和C 级车有望进一步实现自主突破，为自主车型放量、自主零部件持续营收快速增长奠定基础。整车：推荐江淮汽车，市场依然在量和盈利层面存在分歧，我们展望相对乐观，下半年有望验证。建议关注理想汽车i8 新车、北汽蓝谷的享界品牌投入增强、小米集团YU7 交付提速。此外，油车有望在今年迎来盈利拐点，建议关注油车占比更高、进程加快的上汽集团、长城汽车。零部件：受行业beta 影响较大，近期机器人产业链也表现较弱，我们建议低位布局，1）今年估值相对低的、2）明年业绩增速相对不错的，推荐星宇股份、爱柯迪，建议关注新泉股份、豪能股份、地平线机器人、纽泰格。同时建议关注2Q 预期财报相对较好的豪能、新泉、立中、爱柯迪。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、汽车销量不及预期、核心新车型推出节奏及销量不及预期、原材料涨价超预期、汇率波动、政策不确定性风险等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}