摩根士丹利研究报告指，今年采用第三方物流(3PL)的TikTok Shop正积极抢占市占率，令极兔速递-W(01519.HK) 次季经营表现超预期。该行料极兔今年上半年经调整净利达约2.35亿美元，而去年同期为6,300万美元。
虽然东南亚增长前景更乐观，但该行仍有疑虑，包括在贸易摩擦下，东南亚电商市场能否维持强劲增长、“电商+自营物流”与“电商+第三方物流”的格局转变，以及当TikTok Shop已贡献极兔东南亚逾五成单量时，公司的议价能力会否改变。
该行上调极兔速递2025至27年各年经调整净利预测分别12%、24%与34%，反映东南亚市次季超预期表现及后续年度增长预测获上调，同时下调中国业务盈利复苏预期，因竞争加剧及次季表现未达标。目标价由7.1元升至9.5元，但维持“与大市同步”评级，因当前股价对应2025年预测自由现金流收益率仅2.4%，且预期中国业务短期内或难以实现自由现金流转正。(ss/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-11 16:25。)
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