【券商聚焦】交银国际:当前港股创新药板块估值仍具吸引力

金吾财讯
Jul 16, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际认为,当前港股创新药板块估值仍具吸引力:1)头部创新药企的前瞻市销率与熊市以来的历史均值基本持平,虽略高于美股可比公司、但营收增长预期亦远高于后者;2)目前港股龙头收入达峰时的市销率约3倍,个别公司仅有2倍左右,低于美股平均的4倍;3)1H25内资持续通过港股通加仓,但外资的创新药持仓处于底部。对于创新药出海演变方向,该机构观察以下趋势:1)行业进一步衍生出了NewCo等新型交易模式;2)ADC赛道交易兴趣度最高,双抗/多抗、小核酸/mRNA等前沿技术领域亦存在较多机会。基于当前国产创新药资产储备丰富且交易性价比仍显着、MNC存在专利补缺需求、海外投融资边际改善,该机构认为2H25-2026年出海交易热度仍将延续。首个商保创新药目录有望于2025年内推出,旨在纳入超出基本医保范围的品种,有望创造比医保谈判更宽松的定价环境,并在多方面享受和医保目录相似的待遇。长期内保费和创新药支付规模有望呈数十倍增长。该机构优选中长期基本面稳健、短期催化剂相对丰富、估值仍有较大上升空间的标的,重点推荐康方生物(09926)、先声药业(02096)、传奇生物和黄医药(00013)、德琪医药(06996)。

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