具体事件:当前中国原奶及牛肉均处于周期底部,奶牛行业正在逐步出清迈向原奶供需平衡,肉牛行业已实现牛肉价格回升,近期我们前往优然牧业、中国圣牧调研牧业近期情况。原奶:周期底部确认,产能出清可期。从原奶周期来看,当前中国正处于周期底部,7 月10 日生鲜乳价格3.04 元/kg,同比-6.17%,且相对之前的原奶周期,当前受限于牧业规模化率提升、终端需求相对承压,奶价已经历3 年下行阶段,周期底部时间...
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