智通财经APP获悉,即将举行的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议,普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示,预期FOMC将维持利率在4.25%至4.5%不变。此次会议最值得关注的是Waller和Bowman两位理事可能持异议,这是她的基本预期。市场料将此解读为鸽派信号,并进一步揣测待更多特朗普任命的理事于2026年第一季加入美联储理事会后,利率下调步伐将加快。
对于美联储前景展望,Blerina Uruci提及,最新数据显示通胀顽固程度超出预期,但未足以令FOMC鹰派官员在七月会议上突然转向。她认为鲍威尔主席和大多数FOMC官员希望市场继续预期年内约有两次减息,以保持政策灵活性,同时为应对日益对立的白宫态度提供政治缓冲。委员会内的鸽派(Waller和Bowman理事)官员可能会认为,关税相关通胀已被其他因素抵消,并以中性利率接近3%为由,论证当前货币政策过于紧缩而支持减息。
她指出,自6月FOMC会议以来,经济增长和就业市场的风险平衡已转趋正面,而关税效应对通胀的影响得到确认、经济下行风险减少以及美元持续疲软,令通胀风险略微偏向上行。
她提及,展望今年余下时间,通胀料持续顽固,而鉴于通胀前景处于微妙平衡,贸然减息可能被视为政策失误。她认为鲍威尔主席将尝试引导委员会推迟下一次减息,她认为10月减息的可能性高于9月。
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