Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】交银国际维持中国平安(02318)买入评级 料上半年新业务价值同比增长36%

金吾财讯
Jul 30, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，预计中国平安(02318)2025上半年归母营运利润同比增长5%，预计寿险健康险、财险和银行三大核心业务板块仍贡献稳健营运利润，非核心板块盈利改善。1）寿险及健康险：该机构预计保险服务业绩同比略降，投资服务业绩有所增长，OPAT保持稳定；2）财险：该机构预计承保利润同比显著提升，投资收益同比保持稳定增长，净利润同比增长6%；3）银行板块：预计上半年盈利降幅较1季度收窄。该机构预计平安集团2季度归母净利润同比增长13.5%，上半年同比下降6%。该机构预计上半年新业务价值同比增长36%，价值率同比保持提升态势。1季度新业务价值同比上升35%，主要来自价值率提升。2季度公司推出司庆产品，叠加预定利率下调预期，该机构预计新单保费同比降幅收窄，价值率继续同比提升，预计2季度新业务价值同比增长38%，上半年同比增长36%；分渠道来看，银保、社区渠道贡献占比预计进一步提升。该机构主要上调投资收益假设，上调盈利预测，预计2025年营运利润同比增长7%，归母净利润同比增长5%。该机构预计公司25-27年ROE有望保持在13%以上，目前公司2025年市净率低于1倍，股息率为5%左右，估值仍具吸引力。基于1.2倍2025年市净率，该机构将目标价从60港元上调至73港元，维持买入评级。

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