国金农牧张子阳|农林牧渔深度研究:牧业专题二,全球肉牛价格开启上行,看好牧业景气周期

国金证券研究所
Jul 31

作者:张子阳摘要■投资逻辑肉牛养殖强周期性,全球牛价开启上行周期母牛配种后需要经过大约28个月的时间育肥牛才能出栏,同时母牛单胎产仔数通常为1头,生产效率偏低使其种群规模扩张速度存在明显限制,肉牛供给端的增长也呈现较长周期,历史上中国牛肉价格上行周期平均长度4年左右。全球牛价新一轮上涨已经开启,景气周期有望延续至2027年。2022年4月份全球牛价见顶后开始出现调整,期间由于养殖盈利的缩窄、全球...

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