花旗发表报告，预计覆盖的内银股在2025年上半年收入下降幅度将有所减少，预计按年下降0.1%。原因包括上半年净息差压缩幅度较小；交易收益压力减轻，因10年期中国国债收益率在2025年第二季度末降至1.65%。此外，该行预计上半年盈利按年持平，相较于首季盈利按年下降1.3%有所改善。第二季超预期的宏观经济条件可能会激励银行维持逆周期拨备做法，以保留更大的盈利缓冲，并为下半年预计的更多拨备释放留出空间。 在大型国有银行中，该行认为农行及交行可能在第二季度继续实现快于同行的盈利增长；工商银行、浦发银行、北京银行可能报告超出预期的第二季度业绩，并估计招商银行可能低于预期。常熟银行可能宣布高于预期的20%-25%的派息比率。
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