金吾财讯 | 中通快递(02057)逆市上涨,截至发稿,涨4.17%,报162.5港元,成交额2.46亿港元。中国物流与采购联合会发布的2025年上半年物流运行分析显示,上半年全国社会物流总额171.3万亿元,按可比价格计算,同比增长5.6%,增速比一季度回落0.1个百分点。分季度看,一、二季度分别增长5.7%、5.5%,基本延续了的较快增长态势,彰显出我国物流需求支撑经济稳健发展的基础作用。国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会议指出,各企业负责人要进一步增强大局意识,积极推动解决“内卷式”竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题,维护好行业良好发展业态。华源证券发布研报称,2025年7月国家邮政局党组会议召开,旗帜鲜明反对“内卷式”竞争,依法依规整治末端服务质量问题。对比2021年快递行业“反内卷”,快递终端不稳定风险较大,监管环境相似。7-8月是快递行业传统淡季,或可看到在监管号召下,局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损严重区域响应提价,后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看,若后续有持续的监管政策推出,行业或保持良性竞争,从价格战向价值战转变,长期改善快递公司业绩。
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