水牛是幻觉,盈利是主线 2000年以来,全A非金融ROE水平共有4次出现趋势性触底回升,分别是2006Q2、2009Q3、2016Q3和2020Q2。在每次ROE拐点确认之前的一个季度到半年时间内,市场往往会呈现出估值驱动占比上升、行业轮动速度加快的特征,且强于盈利贡献的幅度;与此同时,市场行业轮动速度加快的特征也均有出现。市场投资者基于当下弱基本面+强市场线性外推,认为本轮行情是流动性的“水牛...
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