华创证券研报指出，7月淡季销量下降，海外增长依旧亮眼。7月总销量34.4万辆，同比+1%、环比-10%，1-7M25累计批发销量约249万辆/+27%。高温淡季背景下，终端需求减弱、排产降低。分品牌，王朝与海洋家族销售31.5万辆、方程豹销售1.4万辆、腾势销售1.1万辆、仰望销售339 辆。7月海外销售8.1万辆/同比+169%、环比-10%，维持同比高增，1-7M25海外累计销量约55 万辆。公司产品周期确定性高，看好中期全球份额扩张。短期市场担心国内平价车竞争格局恶化，认为公司作为行业龙头仍有后手优势。中期有望凭借智能化、海外市场进行成长突围。规模优势、高度垂直和销售结构也将支撑公司盈利能力的稳定/提升。考虑25H2估值切换，给予2026年20倍PE，调整目标市值至1.2万亿元。考虑公司转增股本，对应A股目标价调整至133.3元。考虑A/H溢价1.0倍，调整港股目标价至145.9港元。维持“强推”评级。
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