金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报表示，基于煤耗、来水、样本企业公告等高频指标，定量估算2025年7月全国发电量同增+3.2%至9,249亿度（2024年同期基数调整后，考虑到统计局每年对历史发电量回溯上调，若不考虑回溯调整则同比增速为4.7%），其中该机构预计火电、水电、风光核电发电量分别同比+1.1%、-1.8%、+27.3%至5,811亿度、1,634亿度、1,804亿度。7月迎峰度夏正当时，我国电力生产与电力需求具备较高趋同性，火电和水电作为基荷电源起到主要支撑作用，其中水电出力较6月明显好转，该机构认为7月水电发电量同比降幅或将缩小；虽然水电出力修复或对火电形成一定挤出效应，但在夏季历史级高温、最高负荷持续突破下用电需求亦有所提振，该机构认为7月火电发电量仍将维持正增长动能。
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