Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 24.5%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 75.5%。美联储 10 月维持利率不变的概率为 13%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 51.5%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 35.5%。
DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯•科拉斯表示，他预计鲍威尔将谈及首次申请失业救济人数仍然较低、持续申请失业救济人数不断上升的趋势。这种模式表明“美国雇主正处于‘不解雇（旧员工），不雇用（新员工）’的模式”。从理论上讲，这种动态反映了一个稳定的美国劳动力市场。然而，它确实使市场容易受到哪怕是轻微冲击的影响，在劳动力边际需求已经疲软的情况下，这可能会增加裁员。
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