智通财经APP获悉，瀚亚投资首席投资官Vis Nayar及首席经济学家Ray Farris近日发表文章指，鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔的讲话显示出对未来劳动市场疲软的鸽派担忧，该行预计美联储将在9月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，至4.0%至4.25%区间。
该行判断，若8月失业率如预期升至4.3%或以上，将促使美联储降息。反之，若FOMC保持政策不变，需8月失业率维持不变或从7月的4.2%下降，并伴随8月新增就业人数接近5万，同时对之前月份的就业增长数据进行一定向上修订。
瀚亚投资表示，资产价格对美联储降息的交易或将高度依赖美国劳动市场恶化的速度。若8月失业率缓慢升至4.3%且就业继续增长，市场可能将美联储降息视为预防经济衰退的行动，这对股市有利。然而，由于通胀上升，长期收益率的上涨空间将受限。
该行继续认为美元走弱将促进亚洲政策利率进一步下调。强势货币结合出口增长放缓的前景，将使通胀保持低位，实际政策利率过高。由此，该行预测未来两个季度内大多数经济体将降息。
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