摩根大通发表报告，截至上周五，MSCI中国指数及沪深300指数于今年以来各已累升27%及13%。短期指标(如14日RSI)已进入超买区域，但结构性指标仍处于历史常态范围。内地住户存款总额与A股总市值比率往往在降至1.1倍时见顶，目前则约为1.6倍。 自2024年9月以来，本轮反弹主要由机构资金主导；但自7月起，散户资金流也有所增加，为市场增加了流动性顺风。债券收益率低迷、对“央行兜底”的信心，以及市场对美联储降息的预期，均抵消了传统夏季淡季的压力。 在假设股权风险溢价下降、推高估值倍数的情境下，摩通估算至2026年底，沪深300指数有24%上行空间，MSCI中国指数则有35%上行空间，假设基于市场普遍预期的每股盈利增长和未来12个月预测市盈率估值回升，至沪深300/MSCI中国指数历史中位数分别高出2个标准差/高出1.5个标准差。 该行判断单股的超额表现属性主要包括市场一致预期的盈利/收入上调、低股息率，以及估值市盈率提升，超配板块包括媒体与娱乐、生物科技、资讯科技、材料及非银行金融。
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