Odaily星球日报讯 德国商业银行外汇分析师 Antje Praefcke 指出，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话中，着重强调了经济与就业面临的下行风险——以平衡美国政府、市场及美联储联邦公开市场委员会同僚的降息预期与关税可能引发的通胀风险——当前劳动力市场数据的受关注度已远超往常，此次数据的影响权重也将显著提升。这自然也意味着，若劳动力市场数据不及预期，可能会进一步大幅推升美联储降息预期，甚至可能重新引发市场对一次或多次 50 个基点降息的预期。若出现这种情况，我预计美元将再次遭受重挫。明日公布的 ADP 数据若低于预期（市场共识为 8 万人），或会为这种看跌美元的情绪奠定基础——尽管该指数最终对周五非农数据的预测意义不大。 (金十)
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