金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2025H1大众品终端需求仍未改善，板块整体出厂吨价同比继续下行。虽然需求偏弱，但是各细分板块的龙头均表现较强的经营韧性，弱势环境下实现逆势增长、份额提升。细分板块看：1）乳制品需求不振，但是原奶供需边际改善带来行业减值明显减少；2）禁酒令下餐饮供应链需求疲劳，但龙头业务保持增长和份额提升；3）零食行业Q2内部分化加剧，部分企业把握魔芋高景气，基本面表现优异；4）饮料板块呈现结构性需求景气，部分公司保持良好增长；5）保健品增量需求集中在线上渠道，Q2企业经营环比略有改善。该机构指，短期大众品终端需求依然偏弱，预计板块系统性beta行情较难出现，机会仍然集中在结构性子品类景气（功能饮料、茶饮、魔芋、量贩零食店等）、供给侧有改善（牧业）或者个股自身逻辑等。1）零食板块，山姆渠道新品催化不断、中式零食需求高景气，零食板块未来2~3年存在持续不断的结构成长机会；2）饮料板块，功能饮料、茶饮等细分赛道景气好，关注竞争边际变化；3）乳制品板块，低温需求持续渗透，原奶持续去化，看好明年原奶供需拐点有望到来。4）其他板块。
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