MW Oracle is part of an elite club that tops the S&P 500 for huge jumps in sales estimates
By Philip van Doorn
Only three companies in the S&P 500 have seen 2028 revenue estimates rise by more than 20% since the end of June. They all have links to the AI boom.
The three companies in the S&P 500 whose consensus 2028 sales estimates have increased by over 20% since June 30 are all focused on growth opportunities related to the artificial-intelligence buildout.
When Oracle Corp. announced its latest quarterly results on Tuesday, the company's chief executive, Safra Catz, made an announcement that astounded investors and sent analysts scrambling to increase their sales estimates for the company.
Oracle $(ORCL)$ is among three companies in the S&P 500 SPX for which analysts have increased their consensus revenue estimates for calendar 2028 by more than 20% since June 30. And all three of the companies provide services related to the development of generative artificial-intelligence technology.
Oracle shocks and the stock pops
While Oracle grew revenue 12% in its latest quarter, the big news was the company's projection of what's to come.
Read: Oracle's stock surges toward its best day since 1999. These huge numbers explain why.
In the earnings press release, Catz referred to an "astonishing quarter," which included four multibillion-dollar contract signings by three customers. And then she provided a whopper for investors: As a preview to the company's financial plan to be presented to analysts at a meeting in October, Catz said she expects revenue from Oracle Cloud Infrastructure "to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year - and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion and $144 billion over the subsequent four years."
Going out the four years, those numbers would mean growth rates accelerating to 78% in fiscal 2027 and then to 128% in fiscal 2028, before simmering to growth rates of 56% in fiscal 2029 and 26% in fiscal 2030.
The announcement from Catz helped push Oracle's stock up 36% on Wednesday. Here's why that price gain was unprecedented.
More: Elon Musk is still top dog, but Oracle's Larry Ellison is now just $1 billion behind
Screening the S&P 500 for increasing sales estimates
Analysts weren't expecting the sort of five-year growth Oracle projected, and they responded by making large increases to their sales estimates for the company. So we screened the S&P 500 to see which other companies had sparked similar levels of analyst enthusiasm since June 30. The screens are based on consensus sales estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for calendar-year 2028. The estimates were adjusted by the data provider for any companies whose fiscal reporting periods don't match the calendar, including Oracle and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
Within the S&P 500, consensus calendar 2028 revenue estimates have been available since June 30 for 346 companies. The 2028 sales estimates have increased the most since June 30 for these 20 companies:
Company Ticker Change in calendar 2028 sales estimate since June 30 Consensus calendar 2028 sales estimate ($mil) Projected sales CAGR from calendar 2025 through calendar 2028 Constellation Energy Corp. CEG 26% $34,454 11.9% Oracle Corp. ORCL 25% $127,534 26.5% NRG Energy Inc. NRG 24% $37,556 7.8% Ford Motor Co. F 14% $203,094 3.9% Packaging Corp. of America PKG 14% $11,278 8.3% Ametek Inc. AME 13% $8,943 7.2% Baker Hughes Co. BKR 11% $32,241 5.8% Schlumberger Ltd. SLB 11% $41,558 5.4% Union Pacific Corp. UNP 11% $31,717 8.7% Nvidia Corp. NVDA 10% $343,527 19.7% Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI 10% $24,413 13.4% Meta Platforms Inc. META 10% $297,815 14.8% Newmont Corp. NEM 10% $21,942 1.8% Devon Energy Corp. DVN 8% $19,149 4.2% Zebra Technologies Corp. ZBRA 8% $6,982 9.6% DoorDash Inc. DASH 8% $22,323 19.2% KLA Corp. KLAC 8% $16,289 9.2% Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. TTWO 8% $9,371 15.8% Tesla Inc. TSLA 7% $179,245 24.6% Lam Research Corp. LRCX 7% $25,882 10.5% Source: FactSet
In the right-most column, you can see projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the companies' sales from 2025 through 2028. (You may have to scroll the table to see all of the data.)
Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) leads the list, with its consensus 2028 revenue estimate increasing 26% since June 30. In June, the electric utility entered a 20-year deal to provide Meta Platforms Inc. (META) with electricity generated at the Clinton Clean Energy Center - a nuclear-power plant in Illinois. Meta also made the list above, with its consensus 2028 revenue estimate increasing 10% since the end of June.
NRG Energy Inc. $(NRG)$ is also an electric utility and also an AI-related play. The company has been increasing its focus on providing electricity to data centers.
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Read: Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the information available on the MarketWatch quote page
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-Philip van Doorn
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September 11, 2025 14:44 ET (18:44 GMT)
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