金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，社融增速拐头回落，主因政府债的支撑减弱。8月新增社融2.6万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，为2025年以来首次同比少增。8月新增政府债融资1.4万亿元，同比少增2519亿元，而1-7月政府债月均多增近7000亿元，政府债对社融的拉动显著减弱，并带动社融增速拐头回落至8.8%。相比之下，人民币贷款弱势延续。该机构表示，近月来，居民部门资产配置呈现出定期存款“活化”迹象，在股市赚钱效应下也有部分资金直接或者间接向权益市场“搬家”。不过总体上，今年住户存款中的定期存款比例仍在上升通道，只是波动加大。该机构认为，在存款利率降的较快的背景下，居民定期存款“转活”或“搬家”仍将延续，但能否持续向权益市场转移，还需要看这轮行情的可持续性。更根本的是，居民财富配置的主要诉求是跑赢通胀，比如日本长期低通胀环境下，居民主要资产仍是存款、保险、货基等稳健资产，因而当前更重要的是提振通胀预期。
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