By Nicole Goodkind

According to the prediction market Kalshi, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has a 41% chance of becoming the next chair of the Federal Reserve. He leads the field, with presumptive nominees Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, at 17%, and current Fed governor Christopher Waller at 15%.

President Donald Trump said last month that Hassett, Warsh, and Waller were his three finalists for the job, currently held by Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends in May 2026. "You could say those are the top three," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Sept. 5.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently completed a round of interviews for the next Fed chair, narrowing the shortlist to five contenders. The front-runners reportedly are Hassett, Warsh, Waller, current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.

Reider's odds on Kalshi are 14%, and Bowman's, 5%.

Powell's term as a Fed governor extends through 2028, which means he could remain on the Board after his term as chair ends. Apart from Waller, who already serves on the Board, any new pick would likely be appointed first to fill the governor-seat opening that will be available in January when Governor Stephen Miran's term ends. That pick could later be elevated to chair.

Hassett, one of Trump's most trusted economic advisors, is seen as the candidate most closely aligned with the administration's priorities. He helped design the president's 2017 tax cuts and has supported pro-growth, low-interest-rate policies. His close political relationship with Trump could make him an attractive choice for a president eager to loosen monetary policy, although markets may question whether he brings the independence traditionally expected of a Fed chair. Still, Hassett boasts strong economic credentials, and is well-known in his field.

Warsh, a former Fed governor and a partner of investor Stanley Druckenmiller's, is known for his political acumen. He is thought to have the ear of the president. Last spring he reportedly convinced Trump, who was intent on firing Powell, to keep the current chair on.

But Warsh is also known for his relatively hawkish policy stance and his desire to limit the scope of the Fed's activities. That may put him at odds with the president, who is more likely to prefer a candidate eager to cut interest rates. Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to cut rates significantly to provide "jet fuel" to the U.S. economy.

Trump considered Warsh in 2017 to head the Fed, but ultimately chose Powell for the top job. Warsh's second shot at the position may depend on Trump's willingness to look past his policy leanings.

Waller, appointed to the Fed by Trump in 2020, offers a path of continuity. Waller brings technical credibility and institutional stability. He has been among the first policymakers to call for rate cuts this year, bringing him in line with the administration's growth-focused stance. Choosing him would likely ensure a smooth Senate confirmation and market stability. But his technocratic demeanor and reported lack of personal rapport with Trump may hurt his chances.

Bowman, also appointed by Trump, has served on the Board since 2018 and previously worked as a community banker and state regulator in Kansas. This year, she was appointed by the president to serve as the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, overseeing the nation's banks. She has called for swifter rate reductions and a greater focus on regional financial stability. Her regulatory background and steady demeanor could make her a credible option, although she lacks the expansive public profile of others on the list and economic credentials.

Rieder, who oversees trillions of dollars in assets at BlackRock, stands out as the market veteran among the finalists. He is well-known on Wall Street for his calm, analytical style and has impressed some in Washington with his pragmatic approach to economic policy. Still, his lack of central-bank experience and potential conflicts tied to his investment role could complicate a nomination.

Markets view the process as a signal of how far Trump intends to reshape the Fed. A Hassett appointment would suggest a faster path to lower rates and a more politically aligned central bank. Waller could emphasize continuity and independence. Rieder's selection would represent a break from convention, and could signal the importance of markets to the Trump administration.

With the field narrowed, Trump and Bessent are expected to decide in the coming months how aggressively to remake the nation's most powerful economic institution.

Still, predicting a Trump appointee is difficult. The president's decisions often appear to be driven by personal instincts and shifting political considerations. While Warsh, Hassett, Waller, Bowman, and Reider lead the race today, the choice Trump ultimately makes could defy expectations.

Write to Nicole Goodkind at nicole.goodkind@barrons.com.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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October 14, 2025 11:17 ET (15:17 GMT)

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