金吾财讯 | 凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant表示，日本财政前景的不确定性以及疲软的经济数据，可能促使日本央行将下一次加息时间从10月推迟至明年1月。他说，在高市早苗赢得自民党党魁选举、公明党退出执政联盟后，高市需要寻求其他政党的支持，这也让反对派有了更多筹码，推动诸如相当于GDP 2.8%的减税等高成本措施。
疲弱的制造业利润可能限制明年的工资增长，而日本央行消费活动指数的大幅下滑则显示，食品价格上涨正拖累家庭支出。近期日本央行官员的言论也表明，他们在收紧政策上并不急迫，且正评估美国关税措施的全面影响。凯投宏观指出，推迟加息可能令日元在较长时间内维持疲软，从而支撑东证指数。
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