Google or Meta Stock for AI? This Analyst Prefers the Search Company

Dow Jones
Oct 21

Alphabet is closer than Meta Platforms to seeing returns on its artificial intelligence investments, making shares of the search company a better bet for the short term, one analyst at Oppenheimer says.

Analyst Jason Helfstein raised his price target on Alphabet to $300 from $270 while maintaining an Outperform rating. He lowered his price target on Meta to $825 from $870, also reiterating an Outperform rating.

“While we are positive on the long-term benefits from META’s push into AI and proven ability to outgrow peers, we are more bullish on GOOG near term, given more conservative estimates and lower valuation despite not fully monetizing AI Mode or AI Overviews,” he wrote in a research note on Monday.

Alphabet trades at 24.2 times the earnings expected over the next 12 months, above its five-year average of 21.8 times. Meta trades at 24.3 times forward earnings, above its average of 21.3 times.

Alphabet and Meta are both spending tens of billions of dollars as they invest in their AI futures. The former company has been focusing much of its spending on building out the infrastructure needed to power its AI tech, including search products. This includes AI Overviews—automatic AI-generated responses to queries that appear at the top of the Google search page—and AI Mode, Google’s AI search feature.

“AI Overviews are driving 10% more queries, with incrementality improving over time,” Helfstein wrote. “We believe GOOG will see 2026 tailwinds from ads in AI Mode (currently in early beta testing) while GOOG beginning to expand ads in AI Overviews to more markets.”

Other analysts are also optimistic about Google’s future in AI search. BofA Securities analyst Justin Post raised his price target for Alphabet to $280 from $252 on Monday, while reiterating a Buy rating.

“Despite ChatGPT’s rapid growth, Google Search traffic and monetization appear to remain healthy, suggesting that Gen-AI usage and market opportunity is largely incremental,” Post wrote.

Meanwhile, Helfstein said that Meta’s return on its AI investments might not live up to expectations.

“Investors have tolerated META’s significant capex/expense ramp on the belief it will drive sustained high-teens revenue growth; however, mgmt. is seemingly acknowledging this might not happen,” he said.

Shares of Alphabet were up 1.1% on Monday to $256.02, putting them on pace to close at a record high, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Meta stock was up 1.8% to $729.59.

Alphabet and Meta are both scheduled to report earnings on Oct. 29.

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