ChainCatcher 消息，据 CryptoQuant 周报分析，截至目前，鲸鱼地址（持有 100 至 1000 枚比特币的地址）总持仓达约 516 万枚 BTC，占比特币流通供应量的 26%，成为当前市场中最重要的持仓群体。2025 年，鲸鱼地址累计增持约 68.1 万枚 BTC，而其他地址群体则出现净减持现象，显示出机构投资者吸收散户抛售筹码的趋势。
鲸鱼持仓年增长率为 90.7 万枚 BTC，高于 365 天均值 73 万枚 BTC，表明长期需求仍然强劲。然而，短期动能减弱，若月度增持率未能重新加速，比特币价格可能难以突破 126,000 美元新高。目前比特币价格阻力位在 11.5 万美元，支撑位在 10 万美元，若跌破 10 万美元可能引发进一步回调至 7.5 万美元附近。
历史数据显示，鲸鱼持仓年增长率低于 365 天均值往往预示牛市结束，而当前数据表明市场或仍处于牛市后期阶段，未来走势取决于该群体的增持速度能否加快。
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